DEAR READER,

Greetings from Warsaw, where the Warsaw Security Forum just kicked off. With heavyweights like Tusk, Sikorski, and Zelenskyy (joining online) on stage, the war in Ukraine is dominating the agenda. We will bring you some takeaways next week.

Also, our brand-new issue of New Eastern Europe is out! This one dives deep into the state of civil society across Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, and Serbia. The main focus is democratic backsliding, shrinking civic space, and heavy reliance on foreign funding, but there are also stories of resilience and grassroots wins that are worth celebrating.

And finally, Moldova. President Maia Sandu’s pro-European camp has clinched a win at the polls. Two weeks ago, we covered Russia’s attempts to sway the vote, but now we are asking a bigger question: is Moldova finally safe from Moscow’s grip? Our contributor Irina Percemli takes you through the story in this week’s expert opinion.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

“Moldova, you’ve done it again”, Ursula von der Leyen said today, referring to the landmark parliamentary election results in Moldova. Moldova's pro-European PAS party has secured an absolute parliamentary majority with 55 seats, while the pro-Russian 'Patriotic Bloc' gained 26 mandates. This is triumphant news for the pro-European half of Moldova. The European path will continue, with EU membership promised by PAS by 2028. But the struggle is far from over.

Yesterday, pro-Russian opposition leader Igor Dodon declared that the opposition won, and this morning started with protests in Chișinau. This opportunity will definitely be used by the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor's forces, which, even though they were banned from the race, have a widespread influence in the north and the south of the country. Moldovan police have warned about the alleged paid participation in these protests.

Besides these two giants, PAS and the “Patriotic Bloc”, three other political forces gained a chance to enter the Parliament. The centrist "Alternative" party gained 8 seats, thus failing to provide a genuine alternative to PAS. Other pro-European parties received less than one per cent. Dividing narratives from PAS and the 'Patriotic Bloc' proved more effective, following the global trend of rising polarisation. The “Our Party” by Renato Usatii, a popular businessman turned politician with ties to Russia, also gained 6 seats after 11 years of trying to enter the Parliament. And even though it won’t be a dealbreaker, pro-Russian forces succeeded in pushing the narrative of Moldova's neutrality, exploiting widespread fears of war.

Possibly the biggest (and most alarming) surprise: an almost-unknown party called "Democracy at Home" (PPDA) gained 6 seats. Led by a Trump supporter Vasile Costiuc, this party has active ties with Romanian radical nationalists advocating for the unification with Romania. The party used TikTok algorithms to popularise Costiuc in the same way as Romania’s Calin Georgescu in 2024. Even though some point out that some of the votes might be courtesy of Shor’s network, this "Romanian scenario" seems to be becoming a successful tactic to be aware of in future elections in other countries.

This is why our optimism must remain cautious. Moldova is highly polarised, not only through the rural-urban divide, but also regionally. The European path is not a unanimous choice, far from representing the voice of the majority. Over 80% of Gagauzians and 50% of Transnistrians voted for pro-Russian forces. What’s more, for the first time since the 1990s, ultra-nationalist right-wing voices are gaining more visibility. This risks widening the divide even further, as the fear of ethnic discrimination is already one of the most widespread among the minorities in Moldova. This development might give more legitimacy to the strongest narrative exploited for political gain.

While it may be tempting to say Moldova has demonstrated how Russian meddling can be defeated, PAS should not celebrate this victory too enthusiastically. This win should not obscure the challenges ahead. Rather, the party needs to remain vigilant and intensify its efforts, especially in integrating minorities and addressing the Transnistrian question. Disinformation and algorithm manipulation are here to stay. And so is the constant battle between the East and West. The war continues in Ukraine, socio-economic conditions are worsening, and Russia is ready to pour unprecedented amounts of money to keep its sphere of influence in this poor, but very strategically located country. As the European Union contemplates the possibility of further enlargement, the existential importance of Moldova in this geopolitical standoff must be kept in mind. So let’s take a relaxed sigh of victory today, and continue working tomorrow.

— Irina Percemli, Journalist at Czech Radio