DEAR READER,

Russia tested NATO last week with a pair of drone incursions: 19 crossed into Polish airspace, three were shot down, and another breached Romania’s airspace overnight. More on that in our top stories.

For this week’s expert opinion, we are zooming in on Moldova. President Maia Sandu says Moscow is targeting voters abroad ahead of the September 28th elections, using online propaganda, Russian Orthodox priests, and the Matryoshka bot network to spread fake content. We asked Moldovan journalist Mihail Nesteriuc to give us a closer look at what’s really going on.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Moldova has become a crucial piece on the European chessboard, caught between the strategic ambitions of Moscow and the enlargement logic of Brussels. Once a quiet post-Soviet republic on Europe’s margins, the country now stands at the center of a contest that will shape the region’s security and political order. For Russia, Moldova represents both a vulnerable flank and part of the imperial vision of Novorossiya. For the European Union, it is a test case for whether enlargement can provide stability in the shadow of war. As Moldovans prepare to elect a new parliament on September 28, the stakes are unusually high: the outcome will determine not just who governs in Chișinău, but also whether the country continues on its fragile European path.

On 1 September 2025, during a briefing of Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, observers noticed a map that once again illustrated Moscow’s imperial ambitions. The map, published by the Russian Ministry of Defense, showed Ukraine stripped of access to the Black Sea: the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson absorbed into Russia, while Odesa and Mykolaiv were erased from Ukraine’s borders. This visual was not only a symbolic provocation but also a reminder of the Kremlin’s long-standing project of Novorossiya — an imperial construct designed to experiment with and dominate various ethnic groups. For Moldova, which lies just west of Odesa, the implications are grave: any Russian attempt to seize Ukraine’s southern coast would place Moldova directly in Moscow’s crosshairs.

At the same time, the war in Ukraine has reshaped EU enlargement policy, compelling Brussels to consider the integration of Eastern Partnership states with new urgency. Moldova, alongside Ukraine, has become central to debates about the future architecture of Europe. The country is not only a frontline state resisting Russian pressure but also a potential logistics hub for reconstruction and trade flows once the war subsides. In this sense, Moldova’s geopolitical significance extends far beyond its borders — it is a test of whether the EU can secure and stabilize its eastern frontier.

Internally, Moldova’s political landscape is defined by competition between the governing Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) and a fragmented opposition, some of whose leaders are accused of having links to Moscow. Recent polls suggest that PAS remains the strongest single force but risks losing its outright majority. This would force coalition negotiations, a familiar but contentious feature of Moldova’s parliamentary system. For many observers, the outcome will determine whether reforms launched since 2021 continue at pace or whether Moldova returns to the gridlock that characterized much of the 2010s.

PAS claims credit for advancing justice reform, closer integration with the EU, and greater energy security following Russia’s gas cut-offs. Yet the record has been mixed. Even President Maia Sandu has acknowledged missteps in judicial reform. Critics point to the summer 2025 appointments to the Constitutional Court as a test case: former justice minister and PAS vice president Sergiu Litvinenco was named judge, while another nominee, Ion Malanciuc, was the only candidate in a limited selection process. Civil society groups argued that these choices lacked transparency and risked politicizing the Court. Such episodes illustrate Moldova’s wider challenge: balancing EU-driven reforms with the need for institutional accountability, pluralism, and renewed public trust.

What is at stake?

At stake in Moldova’s parliamentary elections is not only the balance of power in Chișinău but also the country’s future orientation. As EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos underlined during a recent visit, a victory for pro-Russian forces could halt the reforms required by Brussels and risk placing Moldova on a “Georgian scenario” — stalled accession and suspended European assistance. “If reforms stop, support stops,” Kos said, pointing to EU programmes that currently subsidize energy bills, infrastructure, and social projects. Her remarks also drew attention to the presence of politicians who claim to be pro-European while quietly undermining integration efforts.

European leaders have sought to counterbalance these risks with tangible incentives. Politico reported in mid-August that Brussels was considering advancing Moldova’s EU accession track separately from Ukraine’s, a symbolic move that could boost pro-EU forces before the vote but risk unsettling Kyiv. Meanwhile, the European Commission recently delivered an additional €18.9 million under its Reform and Growth Facility, highlighting Moldova’s progress in justice and energy reforms and calling on European businesses to invest. These elections will therefore decide whether Moldova continues on a reformist, EU-backed trajectory, or whether external influence and domestic discontent push it away from Europe at a decisive moment.

— Mihail Nestoriuc, Journalist