📩 Georgia's path forward?

DEAR READER,

If you ever think that your vote doesn't count, look at Moldova's EU referendum. At the moment of writing this, the pro-EU vote holds a razor-thin lead at 50.26%. Much like in the 2020 elections, it was the vote from abroad that tipped the balance. So this is a reminder — your vote can always make the difference.

Besides the referendum, Moldova also voted for its president, with incumbent Maia Sandu leading at 42%, followed by pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo at 27%. A runoff election is scheduled for November 3.

In the meantime, although with very narrow lead, the referendum will put the country's European aspirations in the consitution. This referendum can have implications beyond Moldova's borders. With increasing Russian influence in the region and multiple attempts to meddle in both the election and referendum, Moldova's vote could serve as a signal to the European Union that the country is commited to the membership, and it's time to step up the support. It sends a message to neighbouring countries like Georgia, which has its own elections next weekend — that despite the Russian interference, elections matter, and votes count. It also sends a signal to Bulgaria, which is a EU member state, but has faced threats from Russian-backed parties. And lastly, it sends a clear signal to Russia — despite propaganda, societies in Eastern Europe are resilient.

According to Irina Percemli, who wrote for our last week’s edition, while the referendum vote has an edge, this result cannot make Sandu's pro-European government confident.

Additionally, a pro-European rally took place in Georgia ahead of its parliamentary elections on Saturday, which will be the focus of this week’s expert opinion. Tbilisi saw tens of thousands gather to reaffirm their commitment to the European path. The president addressed the crowd, saying that she is confident that country will return to its pro-European foreign policy. We asked George Melashvili, president of the Europe-Georgia Institute, to give us a breakdown of the stakes in this election, why it matters, and what scenarios might unfold.

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Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editorial Assistant

As Georgia approaches its most consequential elections since the restoration of independence on October 26th, the country finds itself at a political (and geopolitical) crossroads. The founder of the Georgian Dream party, and an oligarch with a distinct Russian mindset, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is holding the entire nation hostage, driven by a combination of conspiracy theories and a deep fear of losing power. Many speculate that his ties to the Kremlin run deep, while others suggest that both his mentality and aims are aligned with Russia’s interests. Regardless of the underlying reasons, Ivanishvili is fighting for his political survival, pushing Georgia away from the West and closer towards Russia.

Despite more than 80% of Georgians supporting EU integration, several factors have enabled Ivanishvili to maintain control and push Georgia towards Moscow. Disillusionment with the previous government created a wave of hatred among voters, which Ivanishvili capitalized on back in 2012, and transformed into the main anchor of his regime. Despite the existence of several critical channels, Georgia’s media landscape is dominated by outlets controlled by his wealth, allowing immense control to shape public opinion. The grip on administrative resources is vast, supported by a fear-mongering apparatus that operates through the security services. The judiciary has evolved into a humble servant of the regime, rubber-stamping all the decisions. Furthermore, cronyism and semi-corrupt deals with wealthy businessmen have bolstered his position, and almost unlimited access to the Russian market sanctioned by the West created additional motivation for wealthy businessmen to support him. For a decade, Ivanishvili managed to appease both the European Union and the United States by wearing a pro-western mask, all while slowly destroying institutions, decreasing the resilience of the Georgian public and pulling Georgia closer to Russia, both politically and economically.

For years, Ivanishvili appeared to uphold a social contract aimed at integrating Georgia with the EU. The country signed an Association Agreement, secured visa liberalization and even included its EU aspirations in the constitution and managed to keep excellent relations with western counterparts. However, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a turning point: Ivanishvili genuinely believed that Kyiv would fall within days and began preparing for a Vichy-style government in Georgia, anticipating strengthened Russia entirely dominating both the Black Sea and Caucasus regions, and the West forced out of the Caucasus. Fortunately for Georgia, and the broader democratic world, Ukraine’s resilience shattered his pro-Russian calculations. Since then, Ivanishvili’s pro-western façade has begun to crumble, though his media machine continues to gaslight the Georgian public.

Nevertheless, even the propaganda machine has its limits. There were three controversial laws introduced: the "Russian Law" – a Kremlin inspired legislation targeting foreign agents; the "Offshore Law," which allows individuals to transfer high-value assets to Georgia tax-free; and the "Censure Law" targeting minorities. These controversial laws sparked mass protests across Georgia, significantly undermining Ivanishvili's chances of winning the upcoming October elections.

Thus, the stakes in the upcoming election could not be higher. October 26th presents a critical opportunity for Georgians to elect a government that truly reflects their pro-western aspirations. Polls suggest that support for Ivanishvili’s party has plummeted, and four pro-western opposition parties, together with the president of Georgia, have a real chance to replace the oligarch. In response, the government has resorted to increasingly desperate measures, plastering Tbilisi with propaganda. A couple of the most notorious examples are posters depicting destroyed cities of Ukraine in contrast to recently built infrastructure in Georgia urging voters to choose “peace”, and a disgraceful xenophobic campaign against one of the opposition leaders. These crude attempts to cling to power only reveal how lost the regime has become, as most of these efforts are backfiring.

Georgia now stands at a pivotal moment. The upcoming election will determine whether the country remains on its path toward European integration or is pulled further into Russia’s orbit, with Ivanishvili’s regime fighting to maintain its grip on power at any cost. The scenarios of the future for Georgia could not be more different: if the Georgian Dream wins either fair, or by force, the fate of the country is rather dull – steadfast or a slow Belarusization will force exodus, and Georgia will be stuck in the Russian orbit until the geopolitical situation changes. But if opposition wins, this means Georgia’s return to western aspirations and a very fast implementation of reforms in line with the public demand and widespread support from the Georgian society.

Both the West and all Georgians who keep the idea of modern, western and democratic Georgia dear to them have already realized how high the stakes are – the mobilization of the youth, the main driving force behind the protests earlier this year, is skyrocketing giving lots of room for hope. Alongside the chilly October winds, the wind of change in Georgia subtly brushes against the skin – whether for better or worse, remains to be seen.

— George Melashvili, President of Europe-Georgia Institute

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