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This week’s expert opinion follows up on last week’s: Ana Pisarenco asks what the US diesel deal actually changes for Russia. And Our opportunities section is also back, with four calls this week. Check it out!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

On 14 October, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian overnight attacks had left at least 600,000 people without power. Three days earlier, Donald Trump had announced an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. “Both parties have agreed,” he wrote.

Trump announced the diesel agreement on 9 October, promising more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, with further deliveries to follow, and lower prices for American farmers and truckers. That day, the US Treasury issued General License 135, authorising Russian diesel transactions otherwise prohibited under two sanctions regulations.

Addressing the Warsaw Security Forum on 12 October, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was still waiting for details of the US–Russia conversation.

Zelenskyy says his generals received a US warning that intelligence support could be stopped unless Ukraine halted strikes on Russian oil refineries. He told NPR on 13 October that military commanders had relayed the warning to him.

For Benjamin Hilgenstock, director of KSE Institute’s Center for Geoeconomics and Resilience, the main benefit for Russia is Washington’s pressure to halt Ukraine’s refinery strikes. In written replies for this article, he argued that Trump now had an interest in keeping Russian refineries running.

“This is the actual benefit to Putin and the Russians played this quite well,” he said.

The licence does not tie diesel transactions to a halt in Ukraine’s refinery strikes.

Trump said on 13 October that the US was still sharing intelligence with Ukraine. “We are helping them and we are sharing intel,” he told reporters. He said Washington was working with both countries to end the war and defended the diesel agreement as a way to bring down world fuel prices.

The Kyiv Independent reported on 12 October, citing Ukrainian officials, that Washington had also threatened to block weapons purchases through PURL. Allies fund the US weapons under the scheme; NATO coordinates deliveries. Before the diesel deal, Robin S. Brooks, a former special adviser to US vice-president Kamala Harris, spoke about Washington’s use of sanctions in an interview for the first article.

“Sanctions are something transactional that can be imposed and then lifted,” she said.

Hilgenstock said Ukrainian attacks have constrained refinery output. “Russia will not export any additional diesel due to the ‘deal’ with President Trump.”

Removing a sanctions obstacle cannot immediately restore damaged processing units. Moscow was already considering easing its own export restrictions. On 2 October, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said restrictions could be partially lifted if production exceeded domestic demand, according to S&P Global.

The end of the agricultural season was reducing diesel consumption, while the switch to winter fuel reduced demand for summer diesel, Hilgenstock said, citing KSE’s energy experts. Continued restrictions could leave refiners with excessive stocks and force them to cut production.

The licence could reduce buyers’ perception of sanctions risk and broaden the market for Russian suppliers. “The main benefit, if there is any, will come from somewhat higher prices or lower discounts,” Hilgenstock said.

Any price gain would be small, he said. The interruption to exports makes comparisons with earlier sales difficult. Russia levies its main oil taxes on crude production, which Hilgenstock says would be unaffected by the deal. Oil companies could earn more and pay more profit tax, but he expects little extra revenue for the federal budget.

“I don't think this deal will have any impact on global diesel prices,” he said.

US diesel futures fell almost 5 per cent after Trump’s announcement on 9 October, Reuters reported. Hilgenstock believes Russia would have exported the promised diesel even without the deal.

The International Energy Agency says lost Russian output and disruptions in the Middle East have both strained diesel supplies. Badly damaged complex refinery units can take six to eight months to repair, it estimates. Sanctions make replacement equipment harder to obtain.

“They will just avoid further damage,” Hilgenstock said of a short pause in Ukrainian strikes.

Kyiv has offered to halt its refinery campaign if Russia stops attacking Ukraine’s energy system and critical infrastructure. Zelenskyy told the forum that Russian strikes had badly damaged the country’s sole oil refinery, leaving it dependent on imported petroleum products.

“We agree if they agree,” he said.

In Pryluky, in the northern Chernihiv region, a Russian strike on 7 October killed two Naftogaz employees, Liudmyla Tsyba and Ihor Chub, the company said. Forty-five emergency teams repaired gas pipelines and inspected equipment in every apartment and private house before supplies could return. Naftogaz announced restoration on 12 October.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 13 October that he saw no direct link between the diesel agreement and Russia’s position in negotiations over Ukraine, Interfax reported.

The licence explicitly includes US imports under the two sanctions regulations it cites, although Trump said on 13 October that the diesel would supply the world market rather than the United States.

Congress banned Russian energy imports in 2022. Ending the ban requires, among other conditions, an agreement on Russian withdrawal and cessation of hostilities accepted by Ukraine’s free and independent government.

“This indicates to me that the import ban remains in place,” Hilgenstock said.

Seven senators from both parties challenged the decision in an 11 October statement, arguing that it contradicted the law and that the administration had not followed the required congressional process.

On 13 October, twelve senators, including six Republicans, called on Trump to rescind the agreement and the licence. They also urged him to implement Russia sanctions authorised by Congress in September.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called the agreement a “very risky choice” on 14 October, arguing that it undermined efforts to pressure Putin into negotiations with Ukraine, Reuters reported.

The US authorisation expires on 7 April 2027. The licence sets no ceasefire conditions or monitoring arrangements. On 14 October, Peskov said the ceasefire details were still being worked out, according to the Associated Press. Kyiv wants Washington to ensure that Russia respects the ceasefire.

— Ana Pisarenco, Independent Media Project eurOpinii