DEAR READER,
This week's edition comes at a difficult moment following Saturday's tragic attack in Kraków. Our thoughts are with the victims, their families and everyone affected by the events.
In this week's expert opinion, Aleksandre Nozadze takes a closer look at what we know so far about the attack and the questions that remain unanswered.
Enjoy reading this week’s Brief Eastern Europe.
— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor
TOP STORIES OF THE WEEK
🇺🇦 Expert warns US midterm results will force Trump to face resistance over Ukraine policy. Following the Democratic Party's recapture of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, experts anticipate mounting legislative resistance to President Donald Trump's transactional approach toward Russia. Jan Hallenberg of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs predicts the Democratic Senate will aggressively challenge Trump's policies, notably his controversial agreement to import Russian diesel fuel, through binding resolutions and bills. Analyst Jakob Hedenskog noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shifted his diplomatic focus toward Europe, recognizing that Trump views Ukraine primarily as an obstacle to securing lucrative energy and mineral deals with Moscow. Despite the domestic political shift, US mediation efforts continue, with trilateral talks scheduled for next week in Abu Dhabi following a recent frontline ceasefire in Oleshky negotiated by First Lady Melania Trump. Also: during a White House meeting with Russian and Ukrainian representatives, US First Lady Melania Trump was awarded Ukraine's Order of Princess Olha by Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets for her role in brokering the Oleshky civilian evacuation.
🇷🇺 Russian tankers change course away from United States amid Trump-Putin diesel deal scrutiny. Two tankers carrying Russian diesel fuel to the United States under a controversial bilateral agreement brokered by US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have abruptly changed course, according to the Financial Times. Tracking data reveals the sanctioned, Russian-owned Talisman diverted from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean Sea to await orders off Algeria, while the Hong Kong-owned Leruo changed its destination to Brazil. A third tanker, the Greek-owned Agioi Fanendes, remains en route to New York but has shifted its status to "awaiting orders" without a confirmed discharge port. Authorised by a temporary US Treasury Department sanctions waiver following a 9 October Trump-Putin phone call, the diesel shipments were intended to lower American fuel prices, though industry analysts note US fuel costs have continued to rise.
🇭🇺 / 🇺🇿 Hungary and Uzbekistan negotiate European logistics hubs to boost bilateral trade. During talks in Tashkent on 3 November, the Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan, Davron Vakhabov, met with Hungarian Ambassador József Rózsa to discuss establishing Uzbek logistics hubs in Hungary. The proposed infrastructure aims to significantly improve Uzbek exporters' access to European Union markets and expand freight links by establishing railway hubs and launching regular block train services between the two nations. The bilateral agenda also covered dual education, labour migration, and potential joint ventures in livestock breeding, automotive manufacturing, and tourism. Furthermore, the Hungarian delegation expressed interest in developing agricultural and water management projects in Uzbekistan, alongside establishing regional IT hubs. The parties agreed to collaborate with Hungary's Export Promotion Agency ahead of a planned business forum in Hungary in early 2027 to deepen investment opportunities.
🇷🇴 Senior Pentagon official visits Romania amid regional security discussions. United States Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby held high-level security talks in Bucharest on Wednesday, including a meeting with Romanian President Nicușor Dan at the Cotroceni Palace. Prime Minister Luca Niculescu confirmed he also met the American official during his extended visit to the Romanian capital. The diplomatic engagement follows a recent trip to Washington by Romanian Presidential Advisor Marius Lazurca, who emphasised Romania's indispensable role on NATO's eastern flank and called for a stronger American military and economic presence in the Black Sea region. Colby's visit to Bucharest occured shortly after he reportedly advised Baltic governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to moderate their critical public rhetoric regarding Russia to avoid compromising European security, though it remains unclear if similar requests will be directed at Romanian leadership.
🇱🇹 Lithuanian Foreign Minister denies United States pressure to allow Belarusian potash transit. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has strongly rejected reports that the administration of United States President Donald Trump is pressuring Vilnius to facilitate Belarusian fertiliser exports through the port of Klaipėda. Speaking on national radio, Budrys dismissed a recent media report claiming that US Special Envoy to Belarus John Coale had spent over a year lobbying Lithuanian officials to ease transit restrictions. Budrys clarified that Coale had never raised the issue during their meetings. The diplomatic friction follows President Trump's September announcement that he is seeking a major trade deal with Minsk to secure cheaper potash for American farmers, a move that would require a Baltic transit route. Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius previously denied similar allegations, affirming that the European Union sanctions regime halting Belarusian transit through Klaipėda remains firmly in place.
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EXPERT OPINION
What we know about Kraków mass shooting
Poland has been plunged into mourning following an unprecedented mass shooting in the historic centre of Kraków that left nine people dead and 15 others injured. On Sunday, the Małopolska branch of the National Prosecutor's Office formally opened a consolidated investigation into a crime of a terrorist nature covering both the Kraków rampage and the killing of three of the gunman's family members. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński confirmed that the 24-year-old Polish perpetrator, identified as Michał Oksiński, held radical, ultranationalistic views and was inspired by far-right ideologies.
The attack began just after 3:00pm on November 7th when the masked assailant, dressed in military-style tactical gear and a bullet-resistant vest, drove a black Subaru estate from Sławkowska Street onto Kraków's Main Market Square. Wielding a legally owned AR-15 rifle equipped with an optical sight, he opened fire on random pedestrians and a passing line 1 city tram on All Saints' Square, shattering the driver's cab window. Police patrols responded within three minutes of the first emergency call, pursuing the gunman south along Grodzka Street to the intersection of Dietla and Stradomska streets, where he crashed into another vehicle and exchanged fire with law enforcement. Two intervening officers sustained gunshot wounds before incapacitating the shooter, and two off-duty Kraków surgeons who witnessed the shootout provided immediate life-saving aid at the scene.
Six people (four women and two men) were killed in Kraków, while three additional victims were discovered shot dead at the suspect's family apartment in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski. Lesser Poland Voivode Krzysztof Jan Klęczar confirmed on Sunday afternoon that all six fatalities in Kraków have been identified: four Polish citizens, a 32-year-old British man, and a 51-year-old Austrian woman. The victims in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski were confirmed as the shooter's 53-year-old father, 52-year-old mother, and 21-year-old sister. Among the 15 injured victims hospitalised across six Kraków facilities are four local horse-carriage drivers and five foreign nationals from Austria, Britain, Germany, Portugal, and Russia. By Sunday afternoon, both wounded police officers had been awakened from medically induced comas following surgery, while 14 of the wounded were in stable condition. The perpetrator died in the hospital on Monday morning, November 9th, after undergoing multiple surgeries for the gunshot wounds he sustained during his arrest.
Authorities confirmed the gunman acted alone and had no prior criminal record, dispelling early rumours of a second assailant at large. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz also refuted social media claims that the perpetrator was a soldier, clarifying that he worked as a woodturner with no military service record. Police recovered a large cache of additional weapons and ammunition inside the suspect's vehicle, including Glock and P99 pistols. Investigators established that the shooter held a sport-shooting licence with two firearms registered in his name, while his father legally owned 11 registered firearms and trained at the same shooting range in Starachowice. During the search of the family's apartment in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski, police discovered seven additional firearms.
In response to the deadliest mass shooting in modern Polish history, authorities deployed heavy police reinforcements across Kraków and bolstered security patrols in Warsaw, while Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek pledged a thorough investigation into the perpetrator's background and firearms licensing. Poland is observing two days of national mourning on November 8th and 9th alongside municipal mourning in Kraków lasting until November 11th, while flags outside the European Commission in Brussels were lowered to half-mast in solidarity with the Polish people.
— Aleksandre Nozadze, MA Candidate in International Security and Development, Jagiellonian University, NAWA Banach Scholar
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