📩 COP29: Oil, politics, and climate

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DEAR READER,

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, there is a lot to anticipate about the future developments in Central and Eastern Europe. As we mentioned in last week’s brief, this outcome, although not ideal for the region, could be an opportunity for Europe to strengthen its defense and security efforts, as well as increase support for Ukraine. Now, all eyes are on Trump and his team to see how they plan to resolve the conflict.

Moving to this week’s expert opinion — Greta Thunberg was spotted at the anti-government protest in Georgia last Monday. Initially, I thought she might be heading to COP29 in Baku, but I was wrong. Instead, she said she was going to boycott the UNFCCC for selecting Azerbaijan — an “authoritarian petrostate with a regime repressing Armenians” — as the COP29 host. Instead, Greta called for protest in Tbilisi, which will take place today. Well, let’s see how that unfolds.

So, COP29 kicks off today, gathering a range of actors, but several world leaders are skipping the conference, which will definitely affect its credibility. We asked Leon Hartwell, Visiting Fellow at the European Leadership Network (ELN) in London, Senior Associate at LSE IDEAS, and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington D.C., to discuss why Azerbaijan is hosting COP29, what it means for the region, and how countries use this platform for political and diplomatic dialogue beyond energy and climate discussions.

Also, a reminder! This Thursday, November 14 at 19:00 CET, we will host a live session of Talk Eastern Europe to celebrate the 200th episode of our podcast. Join us to chat with our hosts, ask questions, and connect with a community of our fellow listeners. The event will be streamed live via Facebook, Youtube and X/Twitter.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

P.S. Today, Poland celebrates its Independence Day — we are sending our warm wishes to all our Polish readers!

Today, Azerbaijan will host COP29, the annual United Nations Climate Summit, welcoming around 40,000 participants from world leaders to scientists, activists and civil society advocates. Their goal: to secure climate finance that will aid the world’s most vulnerable nations in weathering the escalating impacts of climate change.

Since COP meetings began under the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), these conferences have underscored a core principle: every country is affected by climate change, but wealthy, industrialised nations bear a greater responsibility for causing it. Yet, despite three decades of negotiations and significant progress in tracking emissions and mobilizing climate aid, both emissions and global temperatures continue to rise. The world remains on track for severe climate change, making this year’s conference all the more urgent.

This year, COP29 negotiations are set to focus on two primary objectives: establishing a new annual climate finance target (1 trillion US dollars) to support adaptation and mitigation and operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund to assist nations most affected by climate-driven disasters. 

Additionally, discussions will continue on the need for enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and on finalising aspects of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which sets out principle for carbon markets.

In 2015, states committed to curbing global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warning that only by limiting warming to 1.5°C — and reducing global emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 — can the most devastating climate impacts be averted.

COP29 has already generated a multitude of controversies, partly due to its location. With oil and gas accounting for around half of Azerbaijan’s economy and over 90 per cent of its exports, some critics see Baku as an ironic host for a conference committed to reducing fossil fuel reliance. The scepticism deepened when leaked recordings allegedly revealed Azerbaijan’s COP29 delegation leader, Elnur Soltanov, discussing “investment opportunities” in the state oil and gas sector with a potential investor — a conversation that for some embodies the disconnect between Azerbaijan’s climate rhetoric and its economic interests.

Adding to the political complexities, COP29 is overshadowed by controversies tied to Azerbaijan’s autocratic president, Ilham Aliyev, who has ruled since 2003. COP29's official venue, the Sea Breeze complex, is owned by Aliyev’s former son-in-law—a choice critics say was pushed through without competition. 

But COP29’s challenges may also play out on a global scale. The recent re-election of Donald Trump in the United States throws fresh doubt on the durability of the Paris climate agreement. As a major greenhouse gas emitter, US participation is critical to maintaining international momentum, yet Trump has vowed to withdraw the US from the accord, a move that would undercut international momentum just as the world faces a pivotal moment. 

Moreover, the absence of major players at COP29 casts a long shadow. Outgoing US President Joe Biden has announced that he will not attend, nor will Germany’s Olaf Scholz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. While their countries will be represented, the absence of top-level leaders signals a lack of seriousness and commitment.

Meanwhile, scientists continue to report an uptick in climate-driven disasters. The past year saw deadly floods, hurricanes and droughts intensify, with 2024 likely to become the hottest year on record. COP29’s stakes are as high as the mercury, and for a world that feels the climate shifting beneath its feet, meaningful action has never been more urgent.

— Leon Hartwell, Senior Associate at LSE IDEAS

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