DEAR READER,

European leaders have gathered in Yerevan for the 8th European Political Community Summit. This event is a big milestone, happening for the first time in the South Caucasus region. The meeting is complemented by the inaugural EU-Armenia bilateral summit. We asked our contributing editor, Tatevik Hovhannisyan, to provide an in-depth analysis of the developments in Yerevan: who benefits from the summit, what are the EU's goals in the region, and how this will impact Armenia's strategic balance between Moscow and Brussels.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

The upcoming European Political Community (EPC) Summit and following the first-ever EU-Armenia Summit, scheduled for 4-5 May in Yerevan, mark a notable step in the gradual institutional deepening of EU-Armenia relations. Although Armenia serves primarily as the host of the EPC, the simultaneous convening of these two events underscores a growing alignment between Yerevan and Brussels and signals the EU’s increasing engagement in the South Caucasus.

The EPC itself, initiated by Emmanuel Macron in 2022, emerged as a strategic response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Conceived as an intergovernmental forum, the EPC seeks to bridge the EU and its wider neighbourhood by institutionalising political dialogue on shared challenges, including security, connectivity, and regional stability.

The timing and location of the Yerevan meetings are geopolitically significant. First, for the EU, hosting both the EPC and a bilateral summit in Armenia sends a symbolic yet clear signal to Moscow that the South Caucasus and at this very moment Armenia can no longer be treated as an uncontested sphere of Russian influence. Russia’s strategic overstretch, largely a consequence of its ongoing war in Ukraine, has reduced its capacity to project power in the region, thereby creating a relative vacuum that external actors, including the EU, are willing to fill.

Second, the agenda of the EU-Armenia Summit, centred on strengthening cooperation in energy, transport, and digital connectivity, alongside discussions on peace, security, and regional stability, illustrates the intention of the EU to act more as a global geopolitical actor and not just a normative power. Its engagement in the South Caucasus reflects an attempt to participate in shaping the regional order through infrastructure, economic integration, and diplomatic presence, while also responding to wider global challenges, including developments in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Third, by holding both summits in Yerevan at this very moment, the EU signals implicit political support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. This approach mirrors the EU’s earlier engagement in Moldova in 2025, when it held the EU-Moldova Summit, and thus backing the pro-European president Maia Sandu during the parliamentary elections.

From an Armenian domestic political perspective, PM Pashinyan stands to benefit significantly from the Summit. Political actors, including the ruling party have already begun electoral campaigns although legally it’s not the time yet. Given his relatively low approval ratings, around 20% public trust according to recent polls, Pashinyan appears to be seeking external legitimacy to reinforce his position for his third term. Paradoxically, one of the reasons for the 2018 Velvet Revolution was against the third president who changed the constitution and went for a third term.

In this context, active engagement with the EU serves not only foreign policy goals but also domestic ones, enabling the government to project pro-European positioning and international backing.

At the state level, Armenia will most benefit from the potentially signing of several agreements, receiving statements about continued financial support for reforms, accelerating visa liberalisation issues, and, most importantly, intention of the EU to further engage in peace efforts with Azerbaijan. In this regard, the European Union Monitoring Mission in Armenia has already contributed to reducing tensions along the border, highlighting the EU’s soft security role in the region.

More broadly, hosting the EPC forum and holding the first EU-Armenia Summit in Yerevan carries symbolic yet political value for Yerevan. Although EU membership is not a realistic prospect in the near term, Armenia can still gain substantial benefits from closer cooperation, particularly through access to EU instruments, policy frameworks, and best practices that support genuine (rather than declarative) reforms and strengthening of democratic institutions.

The key question, however, is whether the Armenian authorities will translate this momentum into tangible reforms and deeper alignment with the EU, or will use it for winning the elections and bargaining purposes with Russia. The answer will ultimately depend on post-summit actions, particularly whether engagement with Moscow intensifies and how the authorities will act and respond to Russian reactions to the EPC and the EU-Armenia Summit.

— Tatevik Hovhannisyan, Contributing editor with New Eastern Europe

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