DEAR READER,

As joint US–Israeli military strikes against Iran dominated headlines over the weekend, today’s main story focuses on how these events are being viewed from a Central and Eastern European perspective.

Also a reminder that we have just recently published our latest issue, Europe in the new disorder. Check it out!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

As the United States and Israel launched joint aerial strikes on Iran this weekend, the political aftershocks were heard around the world, including across Central and Eastern Europe. And as always in this region, reactions said as much about domestic politics and relations with Washington, as they did about Iran.

Let’s get started with the leaders of Central European states.

Poland’s Karol Nawrocki noted that the situation did not directly affect Poland, but required close monitoring. He also wrote on X that Warsaw had advance knowledge of the strikes. Slovakia’s Robert Fico used the moment to criticise what he sees as a weakening global order and an ineffective EU, warning of escalation and rising energy costs.

In the Czech Republic, Prime Minister Andrej Babiš argued that Iran’s nuclear programme posed a real threat and that Prague must stand with its partners. President Petr Pavel, on the other hand, struck a more cautious tone. He remained concerned over Tehran’s human rights record and support for terrorism, but also had a warning that it is too early to judge the long-term fallout.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán convened a Defence Council meeting and quickly pivoted to energy security. Any escalation, he warned, could disrupt supplies and push oil prices higher. With this, he meant the strategic importance of pipelines like Druzhba (see the top story above). The Middle East crisis was also folded neatly into his broader narrative on sanctions and the war in Ukraine.

The Western Balkans, particularly Serbia said that the attack had been “long prepared” and would not end quickly. Other governments across the Western Balkans responded with calls for caution, de-escalation and heightened security. Romania, Bulgaria also urged for de-escalation and raised concerns about safety of their citizens in the region.

The Baltic states focused more on the security lens. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys criticised the European Union for responding too slowly and called for closer coordination with Washington. The EU’s eventual joint statement, delivered by foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, urged “maximum restraint” and respect for international law. Latvian Foreign Minister also wrote on X that the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a moment of relief for the Iranian people.

Estonia went a bit further in connecting the dots with the current security situation concerning the Baltics. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna reiterated Tallinn’s long-held position that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons, but also highlighted Tehran’s direct role in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. Tallinn continues to back EU sanctions on Tehran and supports designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation. And this framing bring us to the argument that Iran is not a distant problem, since it is indirectly active on Europe’s eastern front. Which brings us to the key issue: what does this mean for Ukraine?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was blunt, as reported by Bloomberg. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could reduce the availability of air defence systems and other military supplies for Kyiv. However, since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, direct US military aid has slowed, although weapons continue to flow via European financing. For now, Zelenskyy says shipments have not declined (and it is a bit too early to say whether these strikes will have an impact). But if hostilities with Iran drag on, the ripple effects in terms of focus are inevitable.

It has to be mentioned that the current developments in the Middle East also impact the Russia-Ukraine talks. US-brokered talks aimed at ending Russia’s invasion were set to continue in Abu Dhabi. For now there is no indication they will be cancelled, since alternative venues such as Turkey or Switzerland are being discussed. But more importantly, Washington’s focus may shift, thus prolonging the talks.

According to Bloomberg, Russian officials are already signalling scepticism about negotiations unless Kyiv concedes territory. At the same time, the Kremlin insists it remains open to dialogue, as Peskov said in today’s briefing.

And yet again we are brought back to a paradox. Iran’s military cooperation with Moscow (from drones to strategic alignment) reinforces the argument that Ukraine’s war is not isolated, nor Ukraine’s cause will be sidelined. In turn, it is connected to revisionist actors testing Western resolve.

The strikes have also damaged Russia’s claims as a reliable partner to regimes like Iran (or Syria or more recently, Venezuela). During the critical moments Moscow’s capacity and willingness to meaningfully support its so-called allies appears limited. The Kremlin’s resources are stretched thin. And for Europe as a whole, this supports a lesson that it is time to be more assertive, decisive, and most importantly, united.

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

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