DEAR READER,

This week we turn our focus to the Western Balkans. In our expert opinion piece, Hikmet Karčić examines the growing narrative portraying Bosnia and Herzegovina as a “clash of civilizations”. The author argues that such rhetoric seeks to repackage local ethno-nationalist agendas into a global story that resonates with contemporary anxieties about migration, identity and sovereignty.

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TOP STORIES OF THE WEEK

🇷🇺 Russia has emerged as a major beneficiary of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Russian oil, previously sold at a $13 discount per barrel due to sanctions, is now reportedly trading at a $5 premium as Gulf supplies are disrupted. To stabilize global fuel costs, the Trump administration has also issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, a decision the Kremlin says is further fueling demand. The Middle East conflict also affects the war in Ukraine. As the US depletes its Patriot interceptors to defend Gulf assets from Iranian attacks, Kyiv experiences a growing shortage of the missiles. Russia has meanwhile intensified its strikes, launching 288 missiles at Ukraine in February, a 113% increase from the previous month.

🇷🇸 Judicial purge in Serbia. A controversial new legal framework has led to the removal of four senior prosecutors from the Serbian Prosecutor’s Office for Organised Crime (JTOK), effectively stalling several investigations involving high-level officials. The changes stem from a January amendment on the judiciary, requiring seconded prosecutors - many overseeing sensitive investigations into high-level corruption and organised crime - to return to their original posts. Among the disrupted investigations are a $115 million corruption case involving two former ministers and an investigation linked to a five-ton marijuana seizure on property linked to a ruling party figure. While the governing Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) argues that the reforms were needed to curb politically motivated prosecutions, the European Commission has warned that they represent a serious step backwards for the rule of law and could further stall Serbia’s EU accession process.

🇵🇱 Polish President vetoes defense bill. Karol Nawrocki has vetoed a government bill facilitating nearly €44 billion in defense loans through the EU’s SAFE program, arguing that the deal would indebt Poles for decades and allow Brussels to arbitrarily withhold funding, thus threatening national sovereignty. Nawrocki is instead pushing a “Polish SAFE 0%” alternative, which proposes funding defense through the central bank’s gold reserve profits. The Tusk government slammed the veto as unpatriotic and financially unrealistic, noting that the central bank has not made profit since 2021. While the European Commission confirmed that an individual loan agreement could still release an initial €6.5 billion (15%), government officials warn of legal hurdles, as large funds earmarked for non-military services such as border guards and intelligence services would be legally inaccessible outside of the vetoed framework. On Sunday, around 2,000 protesters gathered in Warsaw under the slogan “We want to be SAFE” to express their anger over the veto.

🇭🇺 Hungary’s election campaign kicked into high gear. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and opposition leader Péter Magyar held rival mass rallies in Budapest on the country’s national day. Orbán urged supporters to deliver a “historic victory” for his Fidesz party in the April 12 vote, framing the election as a choice between war and peace and accusing the opposition of risking Hungary’s involvement in the war in Ukraine. But the nationalist leader faces his toughest challenge since taking power in 2010, with polls showing Magyar’s pro-EU Tisza Party ahead amid voter frustration over rising living costs and economic stagnation. Thousands of supporters from both camps flooded the streets, highlighting deep political divisions as the campaign enters its final stretch.

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EXPERT OPINION

How Bosniaks are cast as Europe’s alleged problem

In recent months, certain Bosnian Serb political leaders, have increasingly adopted the language of a supposed “clash of civilizations” to describe Bosnia and Herzegovina. This framing does not emerge in isolation. It mirrors and appeals to a broader wave of nativist and far-right ideologies currently reshaping political discourse in parts of Western Europe and North America. By portraying Bosnia as a civilizational fault line between Islam and “the West,” such rhetoric seeks to reposition local ethno-nationalist agendas within a global narrative that resonates with contemporary anxieties about migration, identity, and sovereignty. In doing so, it attempts to secure international sympathy and political capital abroad, while recasting long-standing domestic disputes over power, corruption and local politics as part of a larger civilizational struggle.

In European public discourse, we often hear narratives about Muslims as “the other”, a foreign body that cannot fit into the secular and Christian fabric of the Old Continent. This image particularly affects Bosniaks, who are portrayed in such discussions as “misfits”, outsiders in their own home. However, this perception is not just inaccurate, but also deeply unfair to a people who might be the best proof that Islam and Europe cannot only coexist but mutually enrich each other.

Let's be clear about one thing: the first and most powerful argument against the “misfit” thesis is the simple fact that Bosniaks are an indigenous European people. They didn't come to Europe; they've always been in it. Their history in the Balkans goes back centuries, and their identity has been shaped by, among other influences, Central European culture, especially during the Austro-Hungarian monarchy. Ignoring this means erasing centuries of shared history and cultural exchange.

The problem isn't Bosniaks failing to fit in: it's that Europe's imagination still searches for the “real” European in a mold that excludes everything beyond the dominant Christian culture.

While fears are often planted that Muslim religiosity leads to ghettoization and rejection of Western values, research tells us something completely different. A 2024 study by Francesco Trupia on young Bosniaks in Belgium, Germany, and Poland revealed something fascinating: a high level of religious identity doesn't fail to hinder integration and civic engagement, in turn, it actually encourages unconventional and non-institutional forms of political participation.

Put simply, young Bosniaks who nurture their faith are simultaneously more active members of society. They find new ways to contribute to the communities where they live. That's the exact opposite of the "misfit" image living in a parallel world.

These young people, born or raised in the West, have developed what researchers call a “European Islam”: an identity that reconciles family heritage and faith with belonging to modern European societies. They even distance themselves from other post-diaspora Muslim communities to emphasize their specific, European interpretation of Islam. That's not a sign of not fitting in, it's a highly developed awareness of how to be Muslim and European simultaneously, without any contradiction.

Perhaps the strongest proof of how deeply rooted Bosniaks are in European values comes from how they've dealt with their own trauma. Research by Amra Sabic-El-Rayess on Bosniak-Jewish relations through the centuries offers an extraordinary example of resilience. Despite genocide, the destruction of mosques, and systematic persecution, Bosniaks didn't respond with hatred. Instead of tearing down others' places of worship, they rebuilt their demolished mosques — several times on the same spot.

Conventional wisdom says trauma breeds violence. But Bosniaks consciously chose coexistence. Their history, especially the centuries-old symbiosis with the Jewish community in Sarajevo, testifies to a deep understanding of “the other” that forms the foundation of any modern, open Europe.

While Europe's far-right echoes rhetoric with roots partly in anti-Muslim narratives from the former Yugoslavia, Bosniaks represent the living antithesis to such thinking, a people who survived and kept their values despite attempts to erase them.

The narrative about Bosniaks as “misfits” actually reveals more about Europe than about Bosniaks. It exposes a discomfort with the fact that identity isn't monolithic, that you can be different yet completely belong. Research shows young Bosniaks in the diaspora are integrated, active citizens developing an authentic European Muslim identity. They're not waiting for Europe to accept them. They are already actively shaping its future.

Instead of seeing them as a problem, it's time to recognize them as a bridge. A bridge between East and West, tradition and modernity, faith and secular society. If Europe is looking for a model of how to build a society resilient to hate and open to diversity, it doesn't need to look far, just toward Bosnia and Herzegovina and its Bosniaks, indigenous Europeans who've been living proof for centuries that coexistence is deeply valuable.

— Hikmet Karčić, Research Professor at the University of Sarajevo

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OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK

Casimir Pulaski Foundation — New Security Leaders Programme (2026) — A leadership and mentoring programme for mid-career professionals in foreign policy, defence, security, and politics. Participants engage with senior mentors, policymakers, and experts to discuss major global security challenges while building a cohort of emerging transatlantic leaders. The programme runs alongside the Warsaw Security Forum, offering fellows opportunities to contribute to discussions and network with the international policy community. Activities include remote cohort sessions and Leadership Talks ahead of the Forum, as well as dedicated roundtables and engagements during the conference. Deadline: June 1, 2026.

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