DEAR READER,

Starting today, Poland will introduce border checks with Germany and Lithuania. Officials say this is a response to a surge in migration and these measures are only temporary, but it is hard to ignore the pressure it puts on the Schengen agreement, and how it forces us to reconsider the free movement within Europe. I will be thinking about this as I make my way back to Kraków this week from Berlin. More on this story in our headlines.

July 1st marked two things — that we are now officially closer to 2050 than 2000, and Poland’s EU presidency has come to an end. So what does this mean for the bloc and the country? We will be going over what has been achieved, as well as the kind of situation Poland finds itself in due to internal politics and challenges. Read more in our this week’s expert opinion.

Lastly, our partners at the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum have just published the Eastern Partnership Index 2025, which is a comprehensive overview of reform efforts in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Check it out below!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

July 1st marked the end of Poland’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union. Readers may recall our piece as Poland was stepping in, with security clearly at the top of the agenda. Back then, we highlighted the EU’s seven security dimensions, and it was obvious that countering Russia would be priority number one.

Fast-forward to now, we can say that Poland delivered.

Now the main question is, how does the EU turn this momentum into further action and follow its rearmament plan?

Poland started its presidency with a clear motto: "Security, Europe!" Within these six months, the European Commission launched the ReArm Europe plan. This initiative aims to mobilize nearly €800 billion in defense spending over the next several years. That kind of scale hints at a possible overhaul of how the EU funds and approaches defense.

To be specific:

In other words, Europe is finally getting serious about defense.

Poland did not stop at EU-level though. At home, it launched the Eastern Shield, which is a 10 billion zloty (2.36 billion euros) infrastructure project to harden its 700-kilometer eastern border with Belarus and Russia. The plan includes physical barriers, bunkers, minefields, anti-tank defence, and a range of surveillance tech such as satellite monitoring, thermal cameras, and anti-drone systems. Completion is scheduled for 2028, aiming to establish a stronger defensive line on NATO’s eastern flank.

Poland’s presidency also saw action on the sanctions front. The Commission adopted its 16th and 17th sanction packages against Russia. However, a proposed 18th round (focused on Russian energy exports) stalled due to opposition from Hungary and Slovakia.

Now, as Denmark takes over the presidency, Poland wraps up its term having reshaped the EU’s defense narrative. The country, however, needs to tackle growing internal challenges. The beginning of August will see the inauguration of the new president, Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the opposition Law and Justice party. Signs of a challenging co-habitation are already emerging as Nawrocki has begun announcing his top advisers and priorities for his administration. One stark foreign policy difference with the current government is a more hard-lined approach towards Ukraine, declaring in June that he is against Ukraine’s EU accession at this moment, but admitted Poland should still support Ukraine from a strategic and geopolitical point of view”.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called on Nawrocki to find common ground on issues related to security, defence and domestic affairs. However, the latter will definitely continue to cause strife internally, as the new president will have plenty of veto powers which the ruling coalition cannot overturn in parliament. The next elections are still two and a half years away, however there are some speculations that snap elections could come earlier.

Thus, while the EU presidency can generally be considered a success for Poland; the real challenges lie ahead.

— Giorgi Beroshvili & Adam Reichardt