DEAR READER,

In today’s edition, we are looking up (quite literally) in our expert opinion to focus on space: the contested, increasingly militarized domain where Russia may be developing the capability to place a nuclear device in orbit, and where European strategic autonomy is being tested as much as it is on the ground. Kammy Brun of Simera Sense France makes the case for Europe's ability to see, track, and attribute what is happening in orbit.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Major Michael Traut, commander of the Bundeswehr Space Command, has claimed that Russia may be working on the technology to put a nuclear explosive device in orbit. It’s just the latest reminder that orbit is not the peaceful domain it once was. It’s contested – and the adversaries of Europe and its NATO allies are increasingly testing the strength of our space infrastructure. Today, the ability to see, track, predict, and attribute disruption is an urgent need. It’s become a strategic priority for governments and operators.

Satellites, as is now well known, comprise the nervous system of modern economies and their militaries. The space industry contributes a massive and growing percentage of a nation’s GDP across much of Europe: indeed, GNSS alone is thought to underpin more than 10 per cent of GDP across the EU. This makes them prime targets for our enemies in any major conflict; but it’s not the only problem. With the proliferation of satellites – there are now more than 16,000 orbiting the Earth – there is also a growing risk of collisions and interference. SpaceX’s Starlink satellites performed approximately 300,000 collision-avoidance manoeuvres in 2025 – a reflection of the size of the constellation, yes, but also of increasing congestion in orbit.

The ability to distinguish between routine activity, accidental interference, and hostile or potentially hostile actions is therefore becoming increasingly crucial. Misattributing an accident to the deliberate action of an adversary could lead to serious escalation. On the flip side, mistakenly seeing enemy action as a mere accident could embolden that adversary; it’s well known that Russia is probing European NATO for weaknesses. Each national defense and space command must protect its space assets on orbit and have the capability to spot and track strategic satellites and Resident Space Object (RSO). Satellite operators need a clear understanding of what is going on in orbit, and so how to respond should there be a genuine threat to the satellite infrastructure – infrastructure which supports communications, navigation, financial transactions, defence, and more.

The capability I am describing is known as Space Situational Awareness (SSA). It’s an area of extraordinary growth – spending is set to hit $61 billion over the next decade – which reflects a growing understanding among governments and defence agencies of its importance. Europe, in particular, sees it as vital to achieving its longstanding goal of strategic autonomy: with a share of 27.7%, it is now the second-largest contributor to the global SSA market, according to the Insight Partner’s Analysis. The German market was estimated to be worth around $60 million in 2025; the French market was worth roughly $40 million.

This is positive, because the threats facing France, Germany and the rest of Europe are real. Last year, the head of the UK Space Command warned that Russian satellites had been stalking British military spacecraft ‘weekly’. France routinely accuses Russia of engaging in ‘hostile activity’ in space, including espionage, shadowing, and the use of lasers or jamming against European assets. At the same time, China has taken big strides forward in orbital manoeuvring and ‘proximity operations’. Their satellites have the ability to approach, inspect and potentially manipulate other spacecraft in orbit – something that the US Space Force calls ‘dogfighting in space’.

Reforming the current approach to procurement in Europe to reinforce European autonomy will be necessary if Europe is to develop world-class SSA technology and infrastructure. At present, procurement favours large, expensive platforms built by the big primes over next-generation technologies built by smaller, more innovative companies. Countries habitually fail to scale technology together and share costs, which leads to duplication; and a lack of common goals across countries prevents interoperability. Since a nation can’t afford to spend a billion euros to launch a dedicated space-based SSA constellation, it would be wise to consider a hosted SSA payload approach as a more cost-effective and faster way to develop an operational space infrastructure, given that there are a significant number of confirmed satcom and Earth observation missions due to be launched in the next few years. Were there greater collaboration between the public and private sectors, there would be a healthier defence ecosystem and a more joined-up approach, which would mean that software, sensors and cameras – the constituent components of SSA – would be procured swiftly and combined seamlessly.

As it is, space is not what it once was. It’s a battlefield, and one in which our adversaries are operational and intensifying their activity. Securing access for Europe and our allies, and holding our enemies to account, starts with understanding what, exactly, is going on.

— Kammy Brun, Managing Director at Simera Sense