📩 Shadow fleet targets Baltic infrastructure

DEAR READER,

Happy 2025! As we kick off the first Brief Eastern Europe of the year, I have been listening to Lex Fridman's interview with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. I won't be going over the in-depth analysis, but I have seen one word pop up in the comments, that is naïveté. Zelenskyy took the spotlight, reiterating that it is pointless to negotiate with Russia, yet Fridman kept repeating that peace is necessary. All this comes with the Kursk offensive reigniting and the Trump administration coming to the stage.

In this week's edition, we're diving into a timely topic — the undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. With rising sabotage attempts across Europe, it's clear that Russia is not slowing down with its hybrid tactics, and the Western partners have to find a way to respond. We asked Eoin McNamara from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) to break down what's happening under the surface, quite literally.

Also, don't forget to submit your 2025 predictions by EOD for a 20% discount on all our products. And thanks to those who have already weighed in (although some of your takes are pretty bleak). Lastly, while the Talk Eastern Europe team takes a break, do check out the VoiCEE podcast below — highly recommended by us!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

On Christmas Day, December 25, 2024, the operators of Estlink 2, an undersea electricity connection linking Estonia and Finland, detected an unusual supply outage. This seemed to indicate a continuing pattern becoming very familiar around the Baltic Sea. Previously, in October 2023, the Balticconnector undersea gas pipeline linking Estonia and Finland was damaged when a Hong Kong-flagged container vessel, NewNew Polar Bear, slammed its anchor into its dimensions. In the same incident, the same vessel was suspected of inflicting damage on undersea data cables linking Estonia with Finland and Sweden, as well as a Russian data cable. Even more recently, in November 2024, a Chinese-flagged vessel, the Yi Peng 3, carrying fertilizer on-route to Egypt from Russia’s port of Ust-Luga quickly became embroiled as the prime suspect for damage to undersea data cables linking Sweden and Lithuania and Germany and Finland respectively. Yi Peng 3 eventually anchored within Denmark’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) but not Danish territorial waters. Under international law, the Chinese government’s permission was required for investigators to board the vessel. Investigators from multiple Baltic Sea states were eventually allowed to do so, but China still denied access to Swedish prosecutors. Yi Peng 3 eventually left the scene in late December 2024.

Against this backdrop, Estonian and Finnish authorities reacted with urgency once damage to Estlink 2 was apparent. On a stormy night at sea, close communication between the Estonian and Finnish navies proved vital. Weather conditions made speedy navigation a challenge for Estonia’s smaller naval vessel, Finland responded by leading the operation. A Cook Islands-flagged oil tanker, Eagle S, sailing from Ust-Luga to Egypt was suspected to have damaged Estlink 2. With operations spearheaded by the Helsinki police in cooperation with the Finnish Border Guard, special forces were deployed to board Eagle S. The vessel’s crew, comprising Georgian and Indian nationals, cooperated with Finnish authorities without resistance. Learning from previous instances of undersea damage, the speedy reaction of Estonian and Finnish authorities has been praised. Quickly stopping Eagle S in its tracks likely prevented further damage to another electricity connector, Estlink 1, several kilometers west of Estlink 2. 

Finnish authorities took possession of Eagle S within Finland’s territorial waters. This made it possible for these authorities to guide the ship to anchor proximate to the Finnish port at Porvoo where a detailed investigation is currently taking place. Seven crewmembers are suspected of criminal acts by Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation (NBI). Speaking shortly after Finnish authorities took possession of the vessel, President of Finland Alexander Stubb explained, “It’s too soon to draw conclusions yet, why this happened. We know who did it.” Connecting all three major Baltic Sea incidents of undersea damage, NATO governments are working off the strong hypothesis that NewNew Polar Bear, Yi Peng 3 and Eagle S are all part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” instrumentalized by Moscow to circumvent economic sanctions by facilitating trade with non-Western nations as well as supporting hybrid aggression against the EU and NATO. Reports indicate that intelligence equipment capable of intercepting NATO’s naval communications might be present on the Eagle S. 

Common to each incident involving NewNew Polar Bear, Yi Peng 3 and Eagle S was a lengthy anchor-drag along the seafloor for 50-100 kilometers. Guaranteeing undersea damage, this is a highly unusual error from experienced seafarers. An anchor-drop by a vessel failing to decelerate seriously impairs control over navigation. As a hybrid tactic, using “shady ships” like this creates considerable “plausible deniability” allowing Russia to conceal its aggression within a complicated assortment of global companies and national flags. The multi-national composition of officers and crew staffing many vessels increases complexity when seeking to establish how personnel might have been incentivized, bribed or coerced into participating in criminal activity. China’s clear fingerprints on two of these undersea damage incidents also raises the alarming proposition of Beijing now strengthening its ties with Moscow to escalate hybrid aggression, perhaps notching further escalation against the EU and NATO for a new era of strategic competition.

This contribution is part of the Reignite Multilateralism via Technology (REMIT) project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101094228

— Eoin McNamara, Research Fellow at the FIIA

Want instant access to premium articles from New Eastern Europe? It’s easy! Just invite a friend to join Brief Eastern Europe and you’ll unlock exclusive articles, insights, and more. Plus, you’ll be helping us keep more people informed. 🎁

You currently have 0 referrals, only 1 away from receiving Online access.

Copy & paste this link: https://briefeasterneurope.eu/subscribe?ref=PLACEHOLDER