DEAR READER,

Yesterday, the Financial Times published an interview on Poland cooling down on adopting the euro. Poland last year surpassed a $1 trillion GDP and has been invited to the G20 summit in Miami. So the question is: should Poland move forward with the euro, or is it just more hassle than it’s worth? We will break it down in this week’s main story.

Also, Talk Eastern Europe is back for the 2026 season with a brand-new episode. Go give it a listen! That said, our podcast lost its core funding this year. Thanks to our amazing patrons, we’re covering most of the production costs — about €300 per month — but we still need roughly €200 more to fully cover our €500 budget.

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Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

In 2025, Poland crossed an important economic threshold — its GDP surpassed $1 trillion. It’s a big milestone for a country and with that achievement comes a familiar question back on the table: does this mean Poland is finally ready to join the eurozone?

For now, the answer from Warsaw is a clear not yet.

Last Sunday, Poland’s finance minister told the Financial Times that the country sees no urgency in adopting the euro. While all European Union members (except Denmark, which has a formal opt-out) are legally required to join the eurozone at some point, there is no fixed timeline. Thus, Poland appears perfectly comfortable leaving that question open-ended.

The core argument is simple: Poland has grown faster without the euro than many countries with it. Since Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s party won the 2023 parliamentary elections, the złoty has strengthened against the euro, reinforcing the belief that monetary independence has been an asset, so why not keep it. In short, the current system seems to be working.

Several economists have noted that adopting the euro in the near future could provide Poland with a small economic boost, but one so modest it would likely fall within standard GDP forecast errors. The benefits would be barely noticeable. At the same time, the measurable costs of delaying euro adoption tend to shrink over time, making patience relatively cheap in economic terms. Poor timing is where the real danger lies, experts argue. A rushed and insufficiently prepared euro entry could cause lasting economic damage. Greece remains the cautionary tale: premature euro adoption, combined with weak institutions and fiscal mismanagement, left scars that took years to heal. On the other hand, success stories exist, such as Ireland. Its example demonstrates what euro adoption can achieve when it follows institutional reforms, and disciplined fiscal policy. Bulgaria could be an interesting case study as well, as the country switches to the euro in 2026.

There is also a more skeptical camp, which argues that Poland’s economic success is precisely the result of keeping its own currency. Poland was the only EU member to avoid recession during the euro crisis. This has often been attributed to monetary flexibility and a tightly regulated banking sector. From this perspective, adopting the euro would remove key policy tools without offering meaningful compensation.

Interest rates set by the European Central Bank may be appropriate for slower-growing economies in Western Europe, but they could be ill-suited for a fast-growing country like Poland. Handing over control of monetary policy could increase economic risks. Another frequently raised concern is that as long as Poland continues to grow faster than the eurozone average, ECB interest rates could fuel excessive credit growth, increasing the risk of boom-and-bust cycles. This is not a hypothetical scenario. Poland is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, still comfortably outpacing many eurozone economies. The recommended approach, therefore, is to remain a committed and reliable EU member without rushing into deeper monetary integration.

Economic technicalities aside, politics may ultimately be the decisive factor. Public opinion in Poland remains firmly opposed to euro adoption. A survey by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, reported by TVP, found that more than 62% of Poles oppose joining the euro, including 44% who strongly oppose it. Among conservative-leaning voters, support reaches only 8%.

The debate is not only about growth rates or interest policy, but more about financial sovereignty vs deeper integration. In a political climate where sovereignty has become a loaded word, persuading voters to give up the złoty seems unlikely, especially when the economic case for urgency so weak. So the euro may come one day, but that day is probably not this decade.

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor