📩 A ritual of autocracy

DEAR READER,

Russia is forging more alliances and deepens its global partnerships. In 2022, Russia signed a "no limits" pact with China just 20 days before the Ukraine invasion. Through a strategic treaty with North Korea, Russia received North Korean troops to defend the Kursk region from the Ukrainian offensive. It also signed a 20-year deal with Iran last week. These moves align with the 30-year old warning from US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, who said that a potential “anti-hegemonic” coalition of China, Russia, and Iran could challenge the West. Meanwhile, the Western countries are not falling behind, as the UK has just signed a 100-year pact with Ukraine. So let's see where this takes us.

In this week’s expert opinion, we are going to Belarus, where a presidential election is set for January 26. One thing is for sure, we don’t expect any memecoins from Lukashenka. For an overview of the election and what’s ahead, we asked Hleb Liapeika, communications manager for the Belarusian diaspora in Krakow, to share his insights.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

As Belarus approaches its so-called presidential election in 2025, the country remains tangled up in repression, economic dependence on Russia, and international isolation. The ballot features five candidates, including incumbent Alyaksandr Lukashenka, and none even dares to challenge his authority or decisions.

The previous elections in August 2020 resulted in unprecedented mass protests in independent Belarus's history, which were brutally suppressed. The United States and other Western countries have not recognised the results of the 2020 elections and do not consider Lukashenka to be the legally elected president.

On January 27, the script will play out as expected: 70-year-old Lukashenka will be declared the winner, likely with a record-breaking high percentage of votes, launching his seventh term in office. But to understand this event, we should abandon any comparison to democratic elections. This exercise merely borrows the vocabulary and outward forms of democracy while it bears none of its substance. January 26 will not determine Belarus' future, nor will it give voice to its people's choices.

Instead, consider this event as a carefully choreographed ritual, similar to a state ceremony. Much like Soviet-era elections, the regime expects a simple performance: citizens arrive at polling stations (maintaining the five-year tradition), cast their ballots (preferably for Lukashenka), perhaps sample the customary buffet, and return home. No questions asked, no thoughts required.

On Monday morning, people will wake up and go to work. State media will broadcast images of joyful celebration while daily life continues unchanged. People will probably forget about the event before dinner. Days will go by as usual. Life hasn’t changed.

Could this electoral theatre bring about any genuine changes in Belarus, setting aside black swan events like Lukashenka's health? Having weathered this bureaucratic formality without domestic opposition, the regime might marginally ease its repressions. After all, since summer 2024, approximately 250 political prisoners have been released — though this gesture earned little Western acknowledgement, Lukashenka may offer more of such signals hoping to attract attention.

The timing of any such shifts remains uncertain, particularly with the All-Belarusian People's Assembly scheduled for spring 2025. This gathering of the bureaucratic elite represents another crucial ritual in Belarus's political calendar, and any relaxation of control might wait until after this event concludes.

Yet realistically, Belarus is extremely unlikely to return to its pre-2020 political climate. Lukashenka has drawn his lessons from past protests and subsequent attempts at Western reconciliation. He appears determined not to repeat that cycle. Besides unexpected developments, Belarus seems destined to endure an atmosphere of fear and repression for the foreseeable future. Unless, of course, the unpredictable happens — as it sometimes does in the flow of history.

— Hleb Liapeika, Communications manager of the Belarusian diaspora in Krakow

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