DEAR READER,

Brief Eastern Europe is back! The break ended up being a bit longer than we planned, but here we are, landing in your inbox. It’s already mid-January, and while the start of the year has been, well… eventful, we’ll spare you a recap. Instead, we’re diving straight into what’s happening in Armenia, its Western pivot, and what the EU’s response might look like.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

For many years, Europe has presented itself as a stabilizing force in a region marked by volatility and authoritarian pressure. Yet in the South Caucasus, a region that Europe often treats as peripheral, its engagement has been slow, reactive, and overly procedural. This hesitation mattered less when Georgia reliably anchored the region's democratic aspirations. However, as Georgia has moved in a less democratic direction and become more closely aligned with Moscow, the regional landscape has changed dramatically. Armenia now stands as Europe’s strongest democratic partner in the South Caucasus, and the question before European leaders is whether they will act with purpose before this historic moment slips away.

Armenia’s democratic pivot did not arise from optimism. It emerged from profound national trauma. Years of war, the ethnic cleansing and depopulation of Nagorno Karabakh, and the arrest and abuse of Armenian civilians and clergy by Azerbaijan have left Armenia without reliable allies. Russia’s refusal to fulfill its security obligations, along with its broader regional ambitions, forced Armenian leaders to reassess the nation’s strategic direction. In response, Armenia suspended participation in the Russia-led CSTO, welcomed a civilian monitoring mission from the European Union, formally committed to pursuing European Union membership through a national referendum, and began expanding defense and energy partnerships with Western nations. These decisions required extraordinary courage, especially from a small nation surrounded by powerful authoritarian actors.

Despite these difficult but decisive steps, the European response has remained cautious. Brussels has issued supportive remarks, initiated visa liberalization talks, and welcomed Armenia’s reform agenda, yet none of these actions match the urgency of the moment. While Armenia has taken transformative risks in order to anchor itself in the democratic world, Europe’s approach has remained slow and procedural. Visa-free travel, which would send a powerful and visible message of solidarity to Armenian citizens, remains years away. The European monitoring missions, although welcomed, are too small to shape conditions on the ground. Economic support packages have been offered, but their scale does not reflect the magnitude of Armenia’s democratic transition or the severity of the threats it faces.

As Europe hesitates, other powers are shaping the region. Turkey and Azerbaijan have expanded their influence while Russia’s grip weakens. At the same time, the United States has taken on a far more active role in regional diplomacy. Through direct engagement under President Donald Trump, the United States brokered the 2025 peace framework between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which included the TRIPP corridor known as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. This project is a 99-year development initiative led by a consortium in the United States. The United States shaped its terms in a way that ensures Armenian sovereignty and strengthens Armenia’s alignment with democratic partners. Europe observed these developments rather than shaping them, even though the South Caucasus has long been considered part of Europe’s neighborhood.

The result is a new geopolitical reality. Georgia has moved away from democratic norms. Azerbaijan remains a fully authoritarian state. Armenia now stands alone in the South Caucasus as the only country willing and institutionally capable of pursuing a democratic and European future. Yet this future is fragile. Armenia’s national elections in 2026 will unfold in an environment filled with Russian disinformation, economic strain, continued Azerbaijani aggression, and public fatigue after years of crisis. Without visible European support, Armenia’s democratic momentum could stall or even reverse.

Europe has the tools to shape this moment in a positive way. It can accelerate visa liberalization and provide Armenian citizens with a clear sign that reform leads to tangible benefits. It can expand and strengthen the monitoring mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border to deter further aggression. It can launch a major connectivity and transition package, similar to what it has offered Moldova and other nations, in order to support energy diversification, border security, administrative reform, and long-term modernization. It can deliver clear political language on Armenia’s future within the European Union, encouraging reformers and countering the influence of malign actors. It can also establish a meaningful role in shaping the governance and standards of the TRIPP corridor, ensuring that Armenia’s economic and transit future is anchored to democratic institutions. A coordinated approach with the United States would further strengthen stability across the region.

These steps do not require dramatic leaps. They require recognition of the moment and a willingness to act with clarity and resolve. Europe’s strategic interests align fully with Armenia’s democratic success. Armenia has already chosen to align itself with the democratic world. What remains is for Europe to demonstrate that this choice was not made in vain.

For Save Armenia, the stakes are deeply personal. We advocate for a secure, democratic, and sovereign Armenia. We believe in the dignity of the Armenian people, the preservation of their cultural and spiritual identity, and the protection of their fundamental rights. A democratic Armenia is not simply one policy option among many. It is the only path that protects Armenian lives and ensures that Armenia’s history, heritage, and faith endure.

Armenia has acted with clarity and conviction. It has taken risks that few small nations would dare to take. It has placed its future in the hands of democratic partners who claim to share its values. Europe now faces a defining choice. It can match Armenia’s courage and help secure a rare democratic success story, or it can allow hesitation to shape yet another tragic chapter in the history of a people who have already endured far too much.

The choices made today will determine how this moment is remembered in the decade ahead. Armenia has done its part. It is time for Europe to do the same.

— Paul Murray, CEO at Save Armenia