DEAR READER,
This week's brief has one big story running through it: John Ratcliffe's shadowy Moscow trip is our lead item in Top Stories and the subject of this week's Expert Opinion. We thought it deserved a deeper dive.
One more thing: Talk Eastern Europe is back tomorrow with a new season, so keep an eye on your feed!
Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!
— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor
The new season of Talk Eastern Europe launches on September 1st, 2026. Stay tuned!
TOP STORIES OF THE WEEK
🇫🇮 Stubb dismisses fears of Russian attack on NATO. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Russia will neither use nuclear weapons against Ukraine nor open a war against NATO, arguing that Moscow lacks the military capacity to start a second front and faces stronger deterrence from the alliance. He said Russia’s main remaining option for escalation is a new mobilisation, which could carry significant domestic political consequences, though he believes Moscow may still pursue it amid heavy battlefield losses. Stubb also argued that China would act as a deterrent against any Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, while urging Europe to prepare for the worst in order to prevent it.
🇪🇪 Estonia sees no change in Russian threat. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent visit to Moscow was nothing exceptional and had not altered Estonia’s assessment of the threat posed by Russia. Tsahkna said NATO allies have significantly strengthened collective defence and that the best deterrent is a united alliance prepared to defend every inch of its territory. He added that US officials have maintained regular contacts with their Russian counterparts throughout the war in Ukraine, while Estonia remains in close communication with its allies to ensure Moscow understands NATO’s unity and resolve.
🇵🇱 Fire at Polish drone factory raises sabotage fears. Poland’s security services are investigating whether an overnight fire at a WB Group facility in Skarżysko-Kamienna producing drone components for the Polish and Ukrainian militaries was an act of sabotage. The fire was quickly extinguished and caused no injuries, but reports that surveillance footage captured a masked man on the premises prompted the involvement of Poland’s Internal Security Agency and military counterintelligence. Authorities have stressed that the cause of the fire remains under investigation.
🇨🇿 Babiš ally convicted in €2 million EU subsidy fraud case. Prague’s High Court upheld the conviction of Czech MEP Jana Nagyová, a former adviser to Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, for her role in a scheme to secure EU funding for the Čapí Hnízdo resort by temporarily separating it from Babiš-linked conglomerate Agrofert. Nagyová received a suspended three-year prison sentence, five years’ probation and a fine of around €20,000, and said she would appeal to the Supreme Court. Babiš was originally charged in the same case, but proceedings against him remain suspended after parliament refused to lift his immunity.
🇺🇦 / 🇷🇺 Russia continues strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid. Moscow’s Defence Ministry said it was preparing “massive strikes” against Ukrainian energy facilities in response to Kyiv’s continued attacks on Russian oil and energy infrastructure, raising fears of another campaign targeting Ukraine’s power supply ahead of winter. The warning came days after a deadly Russian strike on an ammunition warehouse near Kyiv killed at least 38 people, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blaming negligence in the storage of explosives near residential areas. Ukraine has meanwhile intensified long-range drone attacks on Russian refineries and logistics hubs as both sides continue targeting infrastructure deep behind the front lines.
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EXPERT INTERVIEW
CIA Director visits Moscow
Last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced trip to Moscow. This has been the first visit by a sitting US intelligence chief to the Russian capital since Bill Burns warned Vladimir Putin against invading Ukraine in 2021. The trip, which lasted roughly eight and a half hours, was not on any public schedule and only came to light after flight-tracking data picked up a US government aircraft travelling to Moscow.
What exactly was discussed remains contested. Multiple outlets reported that Ratcliffe warned Russian officials against any move on NATO territory and reaffirmed Washington's commitment to Article 5, while also pressing Moscow to cut off its military and economic support for Iran. Axios later reported that Ratcliffe used the visit to float a possible Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit, part of a renewed push to revive stalled ceasefire negotiations. The Kremlin, for its part, downplayed the visit entirely: spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ratcliffe met with Russian intelligence officials but not with Putin, and dismissed the surrounding coverage as overblown. Meanwhile, President Trump called the visit “semi-routine”.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that the visit suggests Russia may be preparing some act of aggression against a NATO member to test Article 5, though it stressed this is highly unlikely to mean a full-scale conventional invasion. ISW (and others) have been careful to draw a distinction with 2021: unlike Burns' visit, which came after months of a large, visible Russian military build-up near Ukraine, no comparable build-up is currently observed near the Baltic states. That doesn't rule out a more limited or ambiguous test of NATO's resolve, which would require far less visible preparation than a conventional invasion, but it does mean the current situation is not simply a rerun of the run-up to 2022.
While there are conflicting reports on what Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow was really about, his trip did expose fears that the risk of a Russian escalation is real. This weekend, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that there are clear indications that Russia is preparing for something, most likely a provocation against a NATO state. After meeting with NATO’s Secretary General, Tusk posted on X that the coming six months will be crucial and that “we must be prepared as Poland and NATO for various scenarios. We cannot exclude a provocation from the Russian side against one of the NATO members”.
The opinion of the expert community on the exact nature of this provocation is mixed. Many experts argue that we should expect an increase in hybrid activity, including small drone activity, sabotage and arson as well as cyberattacks against infrastructure. In fact, today there are reports of a fire at a drone factory in Poland (more in this week’s top stories), which is being investigated as sabotage. However, some scholars perceive the threat as even more immediate and concerning. Although downplayed by several politicians, the concerns that Russia may attempt an incursion in a Baltic state or even send a missile barrage to attack certain targets in Poland still remain alarming.
Regardless of the circumstances, it appears that Europe and NATO may now be operating under a time constraint. The speculation that Russia is increasing its rearmament capacities and will begin a new mobilisation wave after the September Duma elections (with an aim of 600,000-800,000 new recruits) is an indication that something may indeed be on the horizon. Assuming the accuracy of Tusk's proposed timeline, the forthcoming six months are of critical importance. The most viable course of action involves not only enhancing Europe's preparatory measures but also growing support for Ukraine. This support should aim not only to bolster Ukraine's defensive capabilities against potential aggressions but also to undermine Russian infrastructure, preventing it from participating in such possible scenarios.
— Giorgi Beroshvili & Adam Reichardt
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