DEAR READER,

Last week, the European Commission sent Georgia a letter: meet our recommendations, or say goodbye to visa-free travel. Meanwhile (totally unrelated, btw) two people were arrested in Batumi for trying to sell $3 million worth of uranium in Georgia. The state security acted fast, but the case raised a few eyebrows just because of its oddness.

So, we figured it’s the perfect moment to check back in on Georgia. In this week’s expert opinion, we are breaking down where things are, and whether the August 31 deadline set by the European Commission will bring any change.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Last week, the European Commission sent a strongly worded letter to the Georgian government, calling for the protection of human rights and the repeal of repressive laws which target non-governmental organisations. They warned that visa-free travel for Georgians might be suspended if these requirements are not met. A deadline was given too: August 31st.

Brussels, however, did not mention the ongoing developments in the country, such as the release of those arrested during the demonstrations or crackdown on political figures.

Firstly, the response from the Georgian Dream politicians to the letter was the usual cynicism sprinkled with conspiracy theories. Will the demands in the letter actually be met? I would not bet on it. It is not the first time the Georgian Dream has been challenged in a such way, and they usually ignore all such demands. Also, most Georgians have long stopped expecting real accountability. The EU’s deadline is August 31, but the ruling party doesn’t seem fazed. Their power-consolidation game plan is moving forward with ruthless efficiency.

At first glance, the developments in Georgia may look like disconnected headlines. But once you zoom out, you will see a coordinated campaign to tighten the ruling party’s grip on power. So, let’s look at the current headlines.

Part of the puzzle is going after the civil sector.

In February 2025, Georgian Dream announced a new version of its foreign agents law (previous registry had 385 organisations listed, but many key NGOs refused to comply with the new rules). To counter this, GD officials framed the updated law as a “sovereignty” safeguard, claiming foreign-funded NGOs were trying to stage coups.

Another part is the opposition, no matter how weak.

When Georgian Dream first floated the idea of banning opposition parties, many dismissed it as political theatre. But, also in February, the ruling party formed a special commission to investigate alleged crimes committed during the United National Movement's rule between 2003 and 2012. The commission’s timeframe was soon expanded, and many opposition figures were called upon to testify. Those who failed to show up were jailed.

On June 23, Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze were handed eight-month sentences for not appearing before the commission. Opposition leader Zurab Japaridze got seven months for unpaid bail. Others, such as Nika Melia, and Nika Gvaramia are also behind the bars. Giorgi Gakharia, the ex-PM, managed to testify online after dodging the commission’s in-person summons (he appeared in person the first time), but reports suggest he’s abroad, avoiding a potential arrest.

Lastly, keep pretending that democratic processes still take place in the country.

Georgia is practically in the 2025 local elections campaign right now. However, after the 2024 parliamentary vote, most opposition parties decided to boycott the upcoming local elections, scheduled to take place on October 4. But two parties, Lelo/Strong Georgia and For Georgia decided otherwise. On July 14, they signed a memorandum to cooperate, hoping to take the fight to Georgian Dream in urban strongholds like Tbilisi. There were rumours they would tap former president Salome Zourabichvili to run for mayor, but she’s sticking with the boycott, leaving their game plan unclear.

The opposition is stuck in a lose-lose. Participate, and risk legitimising an increasingly authoritarian system. Boycott, and abandon your voters to (the final) one-party rule. But the voter data shows that those leaning towards opposition do not plan to participate in the elections. So that’s another question mark for those opposition parties that participate.

The EU’s letter briefly reignited protests, but the fire’s mostly out. More than 60 people still await trial for protesting, and many others have been fined for “blocking roads.” So the initial resistance has faded. Fear of arrest and the sense that nobody’s coming to help have all contributed to the current situation we find ourselves in.

There’s one more regional development that complicates Georgia’s situation further. Azerbaijan and Armenia are now holding direct peace talks, meanwhile Georgia has been completely sidestepped — in the past, the country would at least offer mediation. Peace talks could also undercut Georgia’s value as a key transit hub. Experts say that a fully opened Zangezur corridor could be economically devastating for Georgia, though that scenario still seems a ways off.

We’ll keep watching on August 31, but a complete reversal should not be expected.

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor