DEAR READER,

It is conference season in Central and Eastern Europe. European and world leaders flocked to Warsaw, Sarajevo, and Helsinki to hash out how to handle the rising mess in the region. Coming back from the Warsaw Security Forum, one thing was clear: Ukraine dominated every agenda and chat. At the Sarajevo Security Conference, the discussions went beyond the region of the Western Balkans and, in a similar way, discussed the growing threat Europe faces from the East. Many NATO officials there confirmed what we hear elsewhere — if we are not increasing our defence capabilities now, then it is already too late.

Meanwhile, two big things broke over the weekend. Czechia just elected Andrej Babiš and his ANO party. Our contributor Jakub Ferencik unpacks what his comeback could mean in this week’s expert opinion. Georgia’s local elections, partly boycotted by some of the opposition parties, ended not with change, but with deeper confusion. The boycotting groups even declared a so-called “peaceful coup”. More on that in our top stories. One thing is clear though — civil society is shrinking fast (the Georgian Institute of Politics just stopped its operations), and opposition TV stations might be next. If you want to keep an eye on Georgia, there are many independent initiatives popping up, such as Today.Dghes, so go ahead and check out their page.

Also, to wrap up: we are partnering with The Riga Conference 2025, the biggest security forum in the Nordic-Baltic region! Tune in to their livestreams starting October 8, or come say hi in person at our panel (co-hosted with the Heinrich Böll Foundation Warsaw Office).

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Billionaire businessman Andrej Babiš, the Czech Republic’s seventh richest man, has emerged victorious in the Czech Republic's parliamentary elections, though his populist ANO party did not secure an overall majority. ANO garnered just under 35% of the vote, which amounts to 80 seats in the 200-seat lower house, an increase from 72 seats in the previous election, according to early results.

Babiš, who served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021, has already begun negotiations to form a new coalition with two smaller right-wing, eurosceptic parties that cleared the 5% threshold: the anti-Green Deal party Motorists for Themselves (Motoristé sobě), and the anti-immigration Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), led by Czech-Japanese Tomio Okamura. In order to form a government, Babiš needs support from these parties.

In this coalition, ANO would be most aligned with the Motorists for Themselves party, and indeed, both are members of the "pro-sovereignty" Patriots for Europe party in the European Parliament, which Babiš cofounded with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. And, as a result, many like to compare the leaders. Even if Babiš is more supportive of Ukraine than Orban, refusing, for example, to veto collective sanctions against Russia, there are strands of ANO’s coalition that will need taming. It is expected, for example, that the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party will put a strain on Babiš’s alleged pro-EU stance, as SPD’s platform directly puts referendums on EU and NATO membership on the table. But SPD and ANO share some intuitions on what they see as the EU’s weaknesses. ANO has been skeptical of some of the EU’s agenda and frequently advocates for more sovereignty within the bloc; for instance, ANO has been frequently critical of the EU’s climate agenda. But that is where shared values basically end, as of writing.

Most political observers from abroad will be concerned about the Czech position on Ukraine and whether it will change from Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s strong support for the country. And although Babiš has indeed repeated far-right slogans that alleged that Fiala’s government prioritizes refugees over its domestic citizens, Babiš recognizes that most in Czechia support Ukraine. However, Babiš’s views on Ukraine are likely to develop based on the mood of the country and its citizens. As with most things, Babiš’s political opinions shift based on what would get him elected.

That is because initially, ANO was a centrist anti-corruption movement. As politics changed, it shifted leftward to attract disillusioned voters, particularly from poorer rural regions. More recently, and under his leadership, ANO moved sharply to the right, aiming to capture the growing conservative vote. In order to maintain power, many wonder whether Babiš will be swayed into more staunchly anti-EU and anti-NATO positions. So, it is not simply his coalition that might force Babiš to change his views, it’s also his base. That leaves him exposed. By the time of the next election, his base might have different views once more

— Jakub Ferenčík, Journalist