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DEAR READER,

I am heading to Katowice for the European Editors Forum 2025 organised by New Eastern Europe. We are bringing together editors and journalists from across Europe to discuss the biggest challenges facing independent media.

This week’s expert opinion is on political prisoners. As our contributor George Melashvili recently pointed out, Georgia now has more political prisoners per capita than Russia. Authoritarian crackdowns are on the rise not only in Eastern Europe. We decided revisit Andrei Sannikov’s text from 2016, which is just as relevant today, arguing that the fate of these prisoners depends on international attention and solidarity.

Also, this week we are partnering up with our friends at the European Defence Network (EDN). Check out how to join below.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Episode 241: Book Talk: If Russia Wins. Guest: Carlo Masala

TOP STORIES OF THE WEEK

🇺🇸 Trump’s sanctions hit Russia’s oil giants. US President Donald Trump’s sweeping sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have dealt a sharp blow to Moscow’s war finances, instantly driving oil prices up 6% and disrupting shipments to India and China, Russia’s biggest buyers. Analysts say that if Asia cuts Russian imports, the Kremlin could lose up to $7.4 billion in monthly revenues, threatening a major funding stream for the war in Ukraine. While China condemned the move as “economic coercion,” Trump claimed India’s PM Modi pledged to scale back purchases. The US, now Europe’s top LNG supplier, stands to gain as the EU phases out Russian gas by 2027. Yet with Europe still buying Russian LNG and some nations lagging on bans, questions remain over how far Trump’s energy offensive can go to choke Putin’s war machine.

🇭🇺 Hungary heats up as Orbán and opposition face off in Budapest rallies ahead of 2026 elections. Tens of thousands turned out last Thursday as Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party and Péter Magyar’s Tisza party organised competing marches on the anniversary of the 1956 anti-Soviet uprising. Fidesz framed its event as a “peace march,” while Magyar cast himself as the anti-corruption challenger taking on a scandal-plagued government. Polls show a tight race, with Tisza slightly ahead but a quarter of voters undecided, leaving the outcome up in the air. Allegations of state-funded buses for Fidesz supporters and intimidation against opposition organisers have fueled tensions, with both sides trading accusations of lies and foreign influence. Orbán campaigns on nationalist, pro-Russia policies, promising to keep Hungary out of the Ukraine conflict, while Magyar pledges support for Kyiv and a move away from Russian energy. Analysts warn the April election could be “free, but unfair,” with campaigning and resources likely to shape the final result.

🇷🇴 / 🇵🇱 Romania and Poland foiled alleged Russian-backed sabotage plot targeting Ukraine. Authorities in Romania and Poland have arrested eight people accused of plotting to send explosive parcels to Ukraine. Romania’s DIICOT said two Ukrainian nationals were detained in Bucharest for trying to mail incendiary packages via Nova Post, Ukraine’s largest courier company, aiming to destroy one of its offices. Six others were arrested in Poland, where officials believe the group helped route explosives through both countries toward Ukraine. The Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI) warned that Eastern European nations remain key targets of Russian hybrid operations designed to weaken regional support for Kyiv. Both countries’ security services coordinated to neutralise the devices and prevent the planned attack.

🇱🇻 Europol busts major Latvia-based SIM-farm used in global cyber scams. The Simcartel operation, based in Latvia and linked to suspects across 80 countries, enabled criminals to run large-scale phishing and investment scams while hiding their real identities. Police in Austria, Estonia, Finland, and Latvia arrested seven suspects — including the alleged ringleader — and seized 1,200 SIM-box devices, 40,000 SIM cards, $835,000 in cryptocurrency, luxury cars, and servers tied to the websites used by the scammers. Authorities say the network helped criminals create 49 million fake accounts, which were used for banking scams, impersonation fraud, and “daughter-son” WhatsApp scams, where fraudsters pretended to be children in emergencies to extract money from parents. Many victims, especially Russian-speaking users, were also targeted by scammers posing as police officers collecting funds. Investigators have already identified at least 3,200 victims in Latvia, Austria, and Estonia, with losses exceeding $5.2 million.

🇦🇱 Albania emerges as key hub for smuggled Russian and Libyan oil. Albania’s Adriatic ports, particularly Porto Romano near Durrës, have become a transit point for illicit, low-quality oil from Russia and Libya, hidden behind falsified cargo documents or stashed inside modified fishing boats. Investigations reveal repeated arrivals of vessels declaring cement but carrying hundreds of thousands of litres of undeclared diesel, with links to sanctioned Russian and Libyan sources. Prosecutors say local companies, corrupt port officials, and offshore firms helped move the contraband, while a UN panel identified the same Albanian-linked ships in broader smuggling networks from Benghazi tied to General Khalifa Haftar’s forces. Since 2022, Albanian authorities have seized over 750,000 litres of illegal fuel, exposing the country’s growing role in a Mediterranean trade route that funnels profits to armed groups and sanctioned regimes.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR PARTNER

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EXPERT OPINION

Existence without life

On December 8th, 1986, at 23:50 in the hospital of a watch factory in Chistopol, in the Tatar Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, Anatoly Marchenko, a Soviet prisoner of conscience, died at the age of 48. His health had deteriorated during a months-long hunger strike, which he began to protest the torture and imprisonment of political dissidents in the Soviet Union. Five days after his death, Mikhail Gorbachev released Andrei Sakharov from exile, and soon all Soviet political prisoners were freed. Marchenko’s sacrifice, in a sense, marked the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union and heralded a short-lived era of freedom.

That freedom, however, was fleeting. In the years following the Soviet collapse, many of the new independent states reverted to authoritarian practices. The repressive systems of the past were revived and perfected to preserve power indefinitely.

Belarus’s path was especially tragic. At first, it was the most democratic of the former Soviet republics, with a functioning parliament and ambitions of joining the Council of Europe. It was also among the first to adopt the Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, allowing citizens to appeal to international human rights mechanisms. During this brief window of liberalization, Belarus made genuine contributions to international security by disarming and promoting peace, proof that only democratic states can be real guarantors of security.

Yet this democratic promise was swiftly destroyed. The dangers posed by Alyaksandr Lukashenka were grossly underestimated. He built one of the most durable dictatorships in the post-Soviet world, setting an example that Vladimir Putin would later exploit in Russia. Together, they forged what might be called a “cooperative of dictators” across the post-Soviet space, regimes that differ in economic or political matters but are united by their contempt for human rights.

The defining feature of these regimes is the existence of political prisoners: people jailed for their beliefs, for daring to speak out against those in power. In Belarus, serious human rights violations began only after Lukashenka took office. Political repression, including disappearances and assassinations, became tools of governance. In 1999, opposition figures Viktar Hanchar and Yuri Zaharenka were abducted and never seen again; in Russia, figures such as Boris Nemtsov met similar fates.

Political repression reveals both the nature and weakness of dictatorship. Despite their claims of strength, such regimes lack the protection of international law. Dictators watch international reactions closely – harsh repression always follows when the world’s response is weak.

Over the past 25 years, the number of human rights organizations has grown, yet violations have also multiplied. This paradox is not the fault of human rights defenders — many of whom are courageous and dedicated — but rather of intergovernmental organizations like the Council of Europe, the European Union, and the OSCE, which have failed to uphold their own principles.

Realpolitik has increasingly replaced moral clarity. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, democratic institutions have diluted their values under the pretext of “changed geopolitical circumstances.” Pragmatic arguments — economic, political, and strategic — now often outweigh moral ones. Parliamentary bodies sometimes rely on regime-friendly think tanks or NGOs to shape their assessments, indirectly legitimizing repressive governments. Such short-sighted policies never succeed. Appeasing dictators only emboldens them. Upholding values like freedom, dignity, and justice is not a luxury but a necessity for regional and global stability.

The fate of political prisoners depends directly on attention and solidarity. Domestic support fuels international campaigns, and global advocacy can act as a democratic judiciary where national justice systems are corrupted. When the international community stays silent, impunity thrives.

For those behind bars, knowing they are not forgotten is vital. Letters from strangers matter as much as messages from family. I know this from experience: I was imprisoned for running against “Europe’s last dictator” and recognized internationally as a political prisoner.

There are those who believe that prison life can still hold freedom, depending on one’s mindset. I disagree. Prison is existence without life. It is an abnormal condition that one must endure in the name of freedom and principles, surviving through hope and connection to the outside world.

When advocating for prisoners, we must avoid double standards. Too often, attention focuses on famous figures while lesser-known activists remain invisible. Dictatorships exploit this by releasing high-profile prisoners to ease international pressure while quietly jailing others. This is happening in Belarus today: well-known political prisoners have been freed for show, while lesser-known activists remain behind bars. Officials who are eager to re-engage with Lukashenka ignore these abuses — a dangerous “new pragmatism” that will only breed more repression.

At a meeting in Łódź, I once listened to the Chinese dissident and poet Liao Yiwu, who had spent years in prison. He said something unforgettable: “The Berlin Wall would not have fallen if not for the Tiananmen Square protests.” His words remind us that the fight for freedom is universal. Every act of courage — anywhere — strengthens freedom everywhere.

Anatoly Marchenko’s death in 1986 led to the liberation of many others because it provoked outrage and solidarity. The same power lies with us today. When ordinary people, journalists, and human rights defenders draw attention to injustice, they compel politicians to act. That moral pressure — the collective power of those who care — can make our world a freer and better place.

— Andrei Sannikov, Belarusian activist and politician

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QUIZ OF THE WEEK

We are very excited that our quizzes are gaining momentum! This week’s theme is education. Our region has a rich academic tradition, so how well do you know the institutions shaping knowledge, innovation, and culture around here?

Which Eastern European country consistently ranks highest in international student performance (PISA) in the region?

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Which is the oldest university in Central Europe, founded in 1348?

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Which Central or Eastern European country has the highest share of university graduates among adults (25–34)?

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OPPORTUNITIES OF THE WEEK

Fresh opportunities you should not miss:

  • The European Correspondent — French & Spanish Editors — Lead new language editions as part of TEC’s expansion beyond English-language journalism. Two positions per language.

  • Munich Security Conference — John McCain Dissertation Award 2026 — Annual award honoring outstanding doctoral research on transatlantic relations in political science, history, or policy analysis. Up to two winners; first prize up to €10,000. Includes participation in MSC events. Deadline: December 8, 2025.

  • Oxford China Policy Lab — OCPL Fellowship 2026 — Join a cohort of researchers exploring US-China relations and emerging technologies. Fellows produce academic and policy outputs, gain access to a global expert network, and research issues spanning AI governance, tech dependencies, and US-China competition. Deadline: November 15, 2025

CARTOON OF THE WEEK

Russian Artificial Intelligence

Do you want to see more of Andrzej’s drawings? Check out our dedicated gallery page featuring his cartoons here.

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