DEAR READER,

We’re back from the European Editors Forum 2025 in Katowice. This was the very first edition of the event, organised by us here at New Eastern Europe! Huge thanks to everyone who joined the discussions on the challenges facing independent media across the region and the continent. Big shoutout to our friends from Notes from Poland, The Fix Media, The European Correspondent, Green European Journal, Journalism Trust Initiative, Dekoder, Ask Questions Later, and many more who made it such a success. We hope that we will return again next year! 🤞

Lately, we have noticed one question has been driving traffic to our website: “Will Russia attack Europe?” While most of our popular reads were on the war in Ukraine, we’re now seeing growing concern about a wider conflict. So, this week Adam Reichardt digs into the topic.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

This autumn has been a whirlwind of conferences and events across Central and Eastern Europe. At nearly every one, the main theme has been Europe’s security, especially in light of Donald Trump’s election and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Yet, despite countless panels and discussions, there remains no clear consensus on one key question: Is Russia truly ready to challenge NATO, even while still bogged down in Ukraine?

Most experts agree that Vladimir Putin is not abandoning his ambitions there. His sights remain firmly set on capturing all of the Donbas region, at a minimum — and some believe he still hopes to see Kyiv fall. The recent wave of Russian drone and missile attacks against Ukraine’s infrastructure shows no sign of the Kremlin easing its campaign. Meanwhile, the US-led efforts to push for peace negotiations have, unsurprisingly, gone nowhere.

Still, the debate extends beyond Ukraine. Is Putin preparing to open a second front, this time directly against NATO countries? Signs of a widening conflict are visible. Drone incursions into NATO territory, violations of Allied airspace by Russian aircraft, Belarusian balloons floating over Lithuania, and sabotage operations across the continent — all suggest that the “grey zone” conflict is intensifying. For some security experts, this means Russia is already at war with NATO, just not in the traditional sense.

Others, however, caution against alarmism. They argue that while Russia continues to probe and provoke with hybrid tactics, it lacks the capacity to mount a full-scale challenge against NATO. Sanctions have strained Moscow’s economy and weakened its war machine. Opening a new front while trying to hold territory in Ukraine, they argue, would be militarily and financially impossible.

But not everyone is convinced. Writing for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), David Roche offers a more sobering assessment. “If Russia were to open another front with Europe,” he argues, “it would seek to avoid a war of attrition like in Ukraine. The war aims would be to reduce Europe to subservience.” According to Roche, such a war would combine kinetic strikes with extensive grey-zone tactics like disinformation, cyberattacks, and sabotage which would be designed to erode public morale rather than conquer territory. Russia’s economy may be struggling, he notes, but it is far from collapse. And as Putin grows more obsessed with reshaping Europe’s security architecture, he may convince himself that Europe’s psychological vulnerability makes such a move worth the risk.

In this scenario, the battlefield would not be defined by tanks rolling into Poland or the Baltics. It would be fought with drones, missiles, and hybrid tactics, aimed at pressuring European societies to back down quickly to avoid destruction and civilian casualties.

That raises two urgent questions.

First, how resilient and prepared are European societies for such a confrontation? There are both encouraging and troubling signs. On the positive side, the NATO Summit in The Hague last June produced a strong commitment: all Allies pledged to spend five per cent of GDP on defence by 2030, a clear indication that Europe is taking its security more seriously. On the negative side, public opinion suggests that societies may not be psychologically ready for war. A Gallup International poll published last year revealed alarmingly low willingness among Europeans to fight for their country. In Italy, 78 per cent said they would not take up arms; in Austria, 62 per cent; and in Germany, 57 per cent. For a Kremlin intent on breaking Europe’s will, that is a strategic advantage.

The second question concerns NATO’s potential response. Last week, when asked how NATO would react if Brussels were hit by a missile, Belgium’s defence minister declared that the Alliance would “flatten Moscow”. It was a bold statement and no doubt heard in the Kremlin. But it also raises doubts about whether NATO could, or would, respond with such speed and ferocity if faced with a real attack.

Of course, all of this remains hypothetical. Yet after attending numerous discussions across Europe, I am convinced that there is not enough urgency in preparing for a potential confrontation. We cannot afford to wait for the war in Ukraine to end, especially when all indications point to a prolonged conflict. Many experts believe the Kremlin will find a way to sustain both fronts, if only to test the West’s resolve.

If policy-makers truly grasp the scale of the threat, they must focus on two priorities:

Achieving that, however, will require something that remains in short supply across Europe today: political courage.

— Adam Reichardt, Editor in Chief at New Eastern Europe

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