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DEAR READER,

George Simion, a far-right leader has taken the lead with about 41% in Romania’s presidential elections yesterday. He is trailed by the mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, with 21%. These two top candidates will face off on May 18 — also the day of the Polish presidential election, so there will be a lot to keep track of. Check back next week for an in-depth analysis of the Polish election. But before that, this week we’re diving deep into a story in Moscow.

Russia is holding its May 9th parade, as usual. It seems that this time around they managed to get several big names in attendance. The number has been growing too. In 2022, no one attended the parade. This year, however, they’re counting on about 19 leaders showing up in Moscow (give or take a last-minute dropout). Read more on that in this week’s expert opinion.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Victory in Europe Day (or Victory Day in Russia) is just around the corner. Although most countries commemorate the defeat of Nazi Germany on May 8th, Russia traditionally holds its celebrations on May 9th. Moscow will reportedly host 19 foreign leaders. But with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warning that he cannot guarantee the safety of visiting dignitaries, speculation is mounting over a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive on the day itself. This speculation has made several leaders quite anxious to attend.

Here’s who’s showing up, and why it matters.

Among attendees are leaders from China, Belarus, Brazil, Venezuela, Serbia, as well as heads of state from Vietnam, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and others, according to Russian outlet RBC. The UN Secretary General António Guterres is not attending, and neither are several high-profile allies once expected to show. Donald Trump is definitely not attending either.

The most important name on the list is (probably) China’s Xi Jinping. Scheduled to visit May 7–10, Xi will mark the 80th anniversary of the Nazi defeat and hold talks with Vladimir Putin on deepening their strategic partnership. Kremlin statements suggest several bilateral documents will be signed. Xi has also invited Putin to Beijing in September, when China will hold its own commemoration, this time marking Japan’s surrender in the Second World War.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend. Following the April 22nd Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people, security concerns reportedly prompted both Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to skip the Moscow parade. Despite their absence, diplomatic ties appear not to be damaged, as Modi made two trips to Russia last year, and Putin is expected in India later in 2025.

Some leaders are also pulling out last-minute. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has canceled his trip, citing illness after returning early from the US. Slovakia’s Robert Fico, the only EU leader slated to attend, also postponed several public appearances, prompting health rumours. He has denied being unwell and insists he still plans to join the May 9th parade, though he might be getting a little anxious about this public appearance, considering an attempt on his life in May 2024.

Unsurprisingly, Belarus’s Alyaksandr Lukashenka will attend. At a meeting in Volgograd on April 29th, he confirmed both his presence at Moscow’s Red Square and his return to Minsk for Belarus’s own Victory Day events. “It doesn’t matter that it’s just the two of us,” he said. “We do our own thing”.

Brazil’s President Lula da Silva also plans to attend and is expected to raise the issue of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine during meetings in both Russia and China. Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, who has also confirmed, has also discussed unveiling a monument to the Soviet army back home. Putin added that the two countries are preparing to sign a strategic partnership treaty.

Nevertheless, the security situation is tense. Russia has proposed a three-day ceasefire with Kyiv for the occasion. In response, Zelenskyy called for a 30-day pause, stating that there was no need to wait. However, the proposal was rejected by Moscow and no agreement was reached. The leaders who do show up will be walking into an event with symbolic weight, and also a very real risk.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers will mark the celebrations in Britain, participating in allied commemorations abroad on May 8th. Zelenskyy kicked off his travels this week with a visit to Prague and meetings with the Czech President, Petr Pavel. Despite signs of the US abandoning the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Zelenskyy hopes to muster new momentum among willing allies to provide much needed military and financial aid. This comes as reports of Russia intensifying its attacks on the eastern front, most notably around the city of Pokrovsk.

The May 9th celebrations in Moscow are not only symbolic as they commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. They are also a chance for the Kremlin to showcase its renewed might and resurgence on the world stage, by having so many world leaders attend the event. Certainly, with the return of Trump to the White House, there were hopes in Moscow that a negotiated deal with favoured Russia would already be in place by the May 9th; and it would be another opportunity for Russia to declare a sort of victory over Ukraine — even having the US recognise Crimea could have gone a long way symbolically. 

Beyond the May 9th ceremonies, Russia is also “celebrating” Putin’s 25 year rule. The convergence of these anniversaries serves as a carefully crafted narrative of strength, continuity and legitimacy for the domestic audience as well as the guests attending. By intertwining the memory of wartime victory with Putin’s political longevity, the Kremlin reinforces its claim to historical greatness while deflecting from current economic and military strains. In this context, the May 9th spectacle becomes less about remembrance and more about the projection of power and endurance in the face of global isolation.

— Giorgi Beroshvili & Adam Reichardt