📩 Just peace

DEAR READER,

Over the weekend, the Trump administration cut funding for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Voice of America. While their impact may have faded in recent years, I have personally found RFE/RL’s coverage of key developments in Georgia crucial. Their loss will leave a huge gap not only there, but in the region and the world. Independent media is already vulnerable, probably facing its biggest challenge in recent years, so make sure to support those outlets that you trust the most before it is too late. We at New Eastern Europe are also running a fundraiser, which we encourage you to support — take a look here.

In this week's expert opinion, we are analysing the latest on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the US push for a peace deal. Trump and Putin are set to talk after the visit of Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, last week to Moscow following negotiations with Ukraine in Saudi Arabia. We asked asked Anton Naychuk, Ukrainian political consultant and director of the East European Council, for his insights on what’s ahead and what are Ukraine’s next moves.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Last week, Ukraine entered the negotiations with the American delegation in Saudi Arabia with clear objectives: 1) to restore strategic dialogue with the US including resumption of American military support; and 2) to test Russia’s willingness for a ceasefire. While Ukraine achieved some short-term tactical successes, the long-term political and security concerns remain unresolved.

Going into the negotiations, Ukraine’s initial position was to propose a ceasefire of drone and missile attacks in the air and sea but with the continuation of activities along the front line. However, the US side insisted on a full ceasefire format. After consultations with President Zelenskyy, Andriy Yermak who led the Ukrainian delegation announced the move to support a full ceasefire. The compromise was that the parties agreed on a trial 30-day ceasefire to test Russia's readiness for real steps. There is no talk yet of lifting martial law or holding elections. In the event of a real ceasefire, the parties will then move on to negotiate an effective political solution that will guarantee security for Ukraine and a lasting peace.

However, despite the agreement forged between the US and Ukraine, political circles (in particular, the Servant of the People party) do not believe that Russia will actually agree to a ceasefire without additional conditions. There are real doubts that peace will ever come. Even if Russia does not reject the American proposal outright, in order not to quarrel with President Trump, there is considerable scepticism that the ceasefire will not be violated later. The reason for this is that Russia does not abandon its strategic goals – the seizure of four regions within the territorial framework and the overthrow of the constitutional order of Ukraine. However, Ukraine is not ready to accept additional conditions from Russia regarding the reduction of the army or recognition of the occupation of territories. Thus, there is scepticism that even a 30-day peace will actually be implemented, despite some general hope and expectations.

To a certain extent, Ukraine has achieved an intermediate political success. It has convinced Trump and his team that Kyiv is open to peace and the American administration cannot criticise Zelenskyy for his “unwillingness to a ceasefire”. The British, French and other NATO allies also encouraged Zelenskyy to find an understanding with Trump. The decisions taken last week became the only option.

Regarding the issue of territorial concessions, Ukraine will not offer to give up the occupied territories. However, it is ready to admit that their return by military means is impossible at this stage. Thus, Ukraine's negotiating position regarding a political settlement will have the following elements (this is the starting position): Ukraine's return of control over the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and restoration of control over the Enerhodar nuclear power plant. In exchange, Ukraine is ready to accept that Russia will temporarily retain control over the captured territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea, but will not officially recognise this in a document or in any other form. Ukraine is also ready to withdraw troops from Kursk. Ukraine will also seek agreements on investments in the Ukrainian military-industrial complex and allowing to maintain its army – for this Ukraine needs annual financial guarantees of at least 20 billion US dollars.

In the future, Ukraine is also ready to sign an agreement with the US on rare earth minerals, but in such a format that it would not create problems for Ukrainian integration into the European Union. The Ukrainian leadership also hopes that after the meeting in Saudi Arabia, they will have managed to remove the “stigma” imposed on them by Trump and somewhat play down the situation.

Now, the optimal scenario for Kyiv would be that further contact between the US and Russia yield no results, and the blame is shifted to the Russian president. In this case, Ukraine would have grounds to ask for additional military assistance from the US.

The current situation is that the US has resumed the supply of weapons, which was still agreed upon during the Biden administration. The Trump administration has not made any new commitments and is unlikely to make any. Therefore, only the breakdown of the negotiation process due to Russia's fault can prompt the American president to change his mind, which is what Kyiv is cautiously hoping for.

— Anton Naychuk, Director of the East European Council