📩 Perpetual crisis

DEAR READER,

Things have been moving quickly last week, as the news came out of Ukraine about pauses in military aid, intelligence sharing, and the possibility of negotiations. At the same time, other countries are preparing to deal with their own crises. For example, Donald Tusk has announced plans to implement mandatory military training for every adult male in Poland in preparation for potential conflict.

But there’s another crisis brewing that has not got attention, at least for the time being. In Bosnia, recently convicted Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik banned state-level institutions in Serb regions. Although this has been suspended by the Bosnian Constitutional Court, it still leaves the country in turmoil. As NATO rep Mark Rutte is travelling there and the EU is ramping up the size of its peacekeeping mission, we asked Alexandra Karppi, co-host of the Talk Eastern Europe podcast to shed some light on the developments, but there seem to be more questions than answers.

On another note, last week we published our latest issue ‘Layers of legacy’, where we explore how historical multiculturalism persists in memory, language and everyday life, and how it might serve as a foundation for a more inclusive and stable future amid ongoing challenges. Check it out!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Though news headlines would suggest that Bosnia and Herzegovina is in perpetual crisis, the country’s latest debacle has brought new levels of uncertainty. Milorad Dodik, the head of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s autonomous region of Republika Srpska, has plunged the country into a political crisis that reeks of secession, if not putsch.

Two weeks ago, Dodik was convicted by the Constitutional Court for defying the constitutional order. He was sentenced to one year in prison and also is barred from holding political office for six years – possibly a severe blow to the Bosnian Serb strongman.

Echoing his wannabe-allies in the Kremlin, Dodik called the ruling “politically motivated” and promised to appeal the verdict. He then pushed a series of laws through Republika Srpska’s assembly, which banned the national judiciary, prosecution, intelligence and police from operating in the entity. The situation boiled over on Friday, when federal police were driven out of a building in Banja Luka, functionally the capital of Republika Srpska, at Dodik’s urging.

While Dodik has destabilised the country for two decades (including by berating Bosniaks and denying the genocide against them), in recent years he has also steadily made moves to de-couple Republika Srpska from national institutions and empower local institutions under his control in their place. Friday’s events suggest that Dodik’s de facto secession could be made de jure, but there are still several unknowns.

The first, and perhaps most important question, is whether Bosnia and Herzegovina’s national institutions will defend the Constitutional Court’s decision and enforce Dodik’s arrest. Without a precedent for this in the country, largely thanks to the country’s convoluted national-subnational political structures and their abuse by entrenched ethno-national elites, this moment will be a critical test for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s embattled national institutions that are more accustomed to cowing to Dodik’s vitriolic attacks. Courts, prosecutors, and police will all be tested in the next several weeks as the appeal process plays out and especially if Dodik’s arrest must be carried out. Dodik’s patrons – in his party and in Republika Srpska more broadly – will also be tested. Bosnian Serb politicians may not come to his aid if they believe Republika Srpska is a sinking ship, whether that’s as an inherently nationalist political project or as a failed economy already pushed to the brink in recent years.

Rumours suggest that if federal forces come for him, Dodik will join the likes of fellow Balkan relegates like North Macedonia’s Nikola Gruevski by fleeing to Budapest. This gets us to a second unknown that could turn the tide for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity: the international response. While Russia has backed Dodik from afar, the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić, immediately flew to Banja Luka to meet with Dodik. The problem for Dodik is that both Russian and Serbian support will likely be half-hearted, as both countries are more than preoccupied with their own governance challenges.

The EU has got off to a good start by sending several hundred more troops to the country over the weekend. Germany criticised the new laws as a “massive attack” on the country's constitutional order and the UK underlined its support to the country’s territorial integrity at this time. But, as with most crises in the Balkans, much will come down to the US. Dodik openly stated in December 2023 that he was waiting for Donald Trump’s second US presidency to declare Republika Srpska’s independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina. But Dodik may be disappointed, as Marco Rubio issued a surprisingly direct statement against the moves, calling them “destabilising” and warning against actions that are “threatening [the country’s] security and stability”.

What is for sure is that the next few weeks will be critical to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future. There is a chance that Dodik’s disastrous political career could come to an end, ushering in a wholly new era for politics in Republika Srpska and in the country as a whole – especially if national institutions are able to stand their ground. But, as I wrote just a few weeks ago in the case of Serbia, here too the price for such a victory could include small-scale violence against the country’s most vulnerable. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, that population is the Bosniak community, which continues to face verbal and even physical attacks. On the other hand, if the US can maintain a hardline against Dodik, there may be a way for this crisis to end in a more peaceful Bosnia and Herzegovina.

— Alexandra Karppi, Specialist in the Western Balkans