📩 Moment of hesitation

DEAR READER,

While G7 leaders are gathering in Canada's Kananaskis for the summit, we are keeping our eyes on Central and Eastern Europe, and we have plenty to unpack this week.

We have just returned from Prague, where we were attending the 20th edition of the GLOBSEC Forum 2025. The event once again brought together top experts to discuss everything from NATO expansion to countering hybrid warfare, and most importantly Ukraine and its path to reconstruction. We will be breaking down our key takeaways in the expert opinion below.

Also, shoutout to Talk Eastern Europe for being shortlisted for “Best Deep Dive Podcast” at the Publisher Podcast Awards. Alexandra Karppi represented the team at the ceremony. We didn't win, but being in the mix with names like Reuters and Foreign Policy is quite the honor for us!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

The GLOBSEC Forum 2025’s theme was “Commanding (in) Chaos”, which centred particularly on the role that Europe can play in becoming a geopolitical actor and a global power in its own right. This comes at a time when the world order is shifting towards Great Power politics and away from a rules-based, multilateral system. In such a context, the key questions Europe must grapple with include: How can it lead amid this chaos? Is Europe capable of acting independently? And what solutions can it offer?

Europe is facing a complex and uncertain reality, so it is hard to say whether these questions can be sufficiently answered. However, the debates were deep and though-provoking. Let’s examine a few of the key issues.

#1 Ukraine and European defence

High-level speakers devoted considerable time to reaffirming Europe’s support for Ukraine and the need to invest in its recovery. Petr Pavel, in his speech said: “It is vital that we invest more in our own defence. But it is equally important that we do not let Ukraine fall. We need to do what we can to help Ukraine become more capable of defending itself, negotiating from a position of strength and self-confidence, and making the cost of any future aggression too high for Russia.”

Interestingly, few today speak of a Ukrainian victory, not even Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who addressed the audience following President Pavel. Instead, the conversation shifted toward securing a ceasefire and forcing Russia to the negotiating table. A comprehensive, Europe-wide strategy to ensure Ukraine’s resilience and sovereignty was noticeably absent. The general consensus leaned towards increasing economic pressure on Vladimir Putin and pursuing his international isolation. However, participants expressed doubts about the effectiveness of sanctions, especially the upcoming 18th EU sanctions package. While on the subject of international isolation, panellists discussing the so-called Global South openly admitted that Russia remains an important economic and (in some cases) strategic partner to many countries. Beyond Europe and a few close allies, there appears to be little appetite for isolating Russia globally.

#2 Ukraine’s reconstruction

Ukraine’s recovery also received significant attention. President Pavel stated, “The reconstruction of Ukraine is not only a moral imperative, but a strategic one. A strong, democratic, and economically viable Ukraine is essential for long-term stability in Europe.” While there was optimism about rebuilding Ukraine, tangible answers were lacking, especially regarding how to convince private European companies to invest in a country under constant missile and drone attack.

There was serious discussion about using frozen Russian assets in Europe to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction, but it was acknowledged that a political consensus on this remains elusive. The issue is far too politically sensitive and divisive within the EU to be resolved anytime soon.

#3 European security and transatlantic relations

A notable shift at the forum was the growing realization that Europe may not be able to fully rely on the United States for its security in the long term. This has triggered a debate on how Europe can strengthen its own defence within the NATO framework without creating friction within the alliance. One proposal gaining traction is the call by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (who did not attend the forum) for member states to spend five per cent of GDP on defence. Some experts deemed this goal achievable but only within a long-term framework, at least seven years. However, most intelligence assessments suggest that Russia may test NATO’s resolve within the next three to five years. This timeline puts Europe’s defence readiness under urgent scrutiny.

#4 EU enlargement

The topic of EU enlargement did make it onto the high-level agenda. The debate featured Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. However, much of the discussion was consumed by internal unrest in Serbia following the tragedy in Novi Sad. As a result, the broader strategic questions regarding EU enlargement under new geopolitical realities were left largely unaddressed.

Certainly, Europe is facing a convergence of crises in a world increasingly defined by chaos, amplified by the recent outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran. Whether Europe has the capacity to lead in this environment, and how, remains a topic of ongoing debate. Nevertheless, time is running thin, and the geopolitical environment is growing more hostile. Europe must move from reflection to action, because in the current global disorder, hesitation can become a liability.

— Adam Reichardt, Editor in Chief at New Eatern Europe