📩 Three years

DEAR READER,

It's been three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I still remember doomscrolling through my social media that night, watching Putin's address, and hoping that this was just another bluff like the build-up in 2021. Unfortunately, it wasn't. The US intelligence community had been sounding the alarm since late 2021, yet most of the West hesitated, not stepping out of their geopolitical comfort zone.

Now, three years later, the feeling of anxiety is back. Not because of Russia advancing on the battlefield, but because of mixed signals coming out of Washington. There's talk of a deal (without Ukraine), and Trump is calling Zelenskyy a "dictator". If February 2022 was the most stressful month of the war, this past week has been the worst since. The least the West can do is to make sure that any deal in Ukraine is just and fair — anything else means we can expect a new crisis soon. More on that in this week's expert opinion from New Eastern Europe Editor-in-Chief Adam Reichardt.

Now, the simplest act of solidarity you can do is local: support Ukrainians in your community. Check in with them, show up to their protests, donate. Personally, I am heading to the demonstration here in Kraków this evening. You can do the same in your city.

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Today, February 24th 2025, marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It also is a point to remember that Russian aggression against Ukraine started much longer ago, with the illegal taking and annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The death and destruction as a result of the Russia’s invasion has reached levels not seen in Europe since the Second World War. Cities have been levelled. Lives have been lost or disrupted. Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty has been completely violated.

The international reaction – particularly among Ukraine’s western allies – has been noble, albeit woefully inadequate, nowhere near enough to allow the Ukrainians to not only defend themselves but to reclaim the lost territory so brutally taken from them by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. The western support was led by the United States under the Biden administration. It began with only defensive weapons, then later, bit by bit, more support was permitted, as the Americans tip toed across every “red line” established by Vladimir Putin, who threatened the most belligerent response – to use nuclear weapons, should western support provide too much of an advantage.

And thus the war played out for nearly three years. Ukraine had some initial successes, especially in the beginning with the destruction of the invading army and halting its progress towards Kyiv; and later a successful counteroffensive which allowed Ukraine to take back some territories. Since then the Russian side has adapted and reconfigured its strategy. Western military support was maintained, just enough to keep the line of contact from not going too far over one side or the other. In the meantime, Russia has completely redirected its economy for war purposes – currently spending more than three times of Europe combined.

This leads to the big question – as we are on the eve of a peace deal for Ukraine – what lessons have we learned as a result of Russian aggression? And even more: how can these lessons shape the future of European policy towards Ukraine and its own security in order to resist future aggression (which is likely from today’s perspective)?

If we could be so bold, we would share our thoughts on some key lessons the Ukrainians and these last three years may have taught us.

First and foremost, solidarity and unity are powerful tools in countering aggression, as demonstrated by the collective response of Ukraine’s allies after the outbreak of the invasion. Yet, this means all European states must be united towards the common adversary. Sadly there are visible cracks in European unity and one does not need to look far to find them, for example in Hungary or Slovakia.

And, make no mistake, unity can only be as strong as any deterrence that backs it. This means all European allies should focus on increasing its capabilities to actively be able to not only defend their own countries but to come to the aid of neighbours (including Ukraine) should the time come. Without security guarantees for Ukraine or other European states, the entire security architecture of the continent remains vulnerable. A lasting and credible deterrence must be built on concrete commitments, whether it be through NATO, bilateral agreements, or other arrangements. Policies going forward can leave no room for ambiguity. In other words, the costs of inaction may far exceed those of being prepared.

In fact this leads to the next lesson. Being caught unprepared costs lives and resources. Unfortunately, this means Europeans need to be ready to make economic sacrifices now in order to spare themselves higher costs in the future. Investing in defence, energy security, and strategic resilience today is an obligation to future generations.

Finally, appeasement leads to further aggression. This seems obvious, especially after Munich 1938. Yet, this year’s Munich Security Conference, it appears there are signs that Great Powers are once again ready to go in this direction. As alluded to above, it would appear a peace deal – which is being largely negotiated directly between Russia and the United States (under the leadership of President Trump) without the direct involvement of Ukraine or Europe – is near. From today’s perspective it would seem this deal will not fare well for Ukraine or Europe. Perpetrators of war crimes and genocide not only go unpunished but will likely be rewarded by means of territorial gains and ease of sanctions. At the same time, the aggressor will continue to pressure Ukraine and Europe to achieve its aims, and the possibility of military force once again engulfing the continent cannot be ruled out either.

Heeding these and other lessons from the last three years requires true leadership and incredible political will. Only time will tell if Europe and the West can rise to the challenge and find an appropriate way to guarantee security against future aggression.

Nevertheless, as we commemorate these three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine we also need to take a moment to reflect on all that was lost. The Ukrainians have suffered at the hands of unspeakable horrors. It is the duty of its allies to honour their sacrifice and ensure that any peace that is negotiated now is just, long-lasting, and backed by a real deterrence.

— Adam Reichardt, Editor-in-Chief for New Eastern Europe